Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 February 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fc4ce6bf3b3ffe670fc279f1354fa2fc24293ff2c080e046219a86892172d50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f75…8775backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0d…26febacked No | 33c | 7,999$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed55…d480backed Yes | 24c | 5,119$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,885.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.50per pick | 16cpaid | +338.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed Yes | 78c | 4,618$3,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.86 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…3214backed Yes | 53c | 4,530$2,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,117.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.38per pick | 20cpaid | +516.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 63c | 4,208$2,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.49 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a65…a930backed No | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 61c | 3,538$2,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.51 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 47c | 2,086$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.6 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…08b1backed Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…56bcbacked No | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.95 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…ee6cbacked Yes | 38c | 1,952$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.17 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1962…e1f0backed Yes | 49c | 1,021$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 47c | 950.07$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.46 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 8c | 875$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed No | 49c | 800$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.15 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Yes | 52c | 750$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 709.75$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.34 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…e94abacked Yes | 50c | 611.52$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Yes | 41c | 601.93$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.28 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 38c | 534.45$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.45 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 522.14$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.59 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked Yes | 74c | 400$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 52c | 360$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 55c | 338.26$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.76 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…ac35backed No | 57c | 328.2$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.04 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 27c | 320$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 52c | 303.27$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.57 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 57c | 299.36$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.88 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4f…f1e0backed Yes | 32c | 290.62$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed No | 42c | 275.89$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c8…d39cbacked Yes | 42c | 274.87$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.67 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…fe47backed Yes | 46c | 261.65$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.66 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…8ac4backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 246$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…132bbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…1da2backed Yes | 50c | 158.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed No | 59c | 158$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…b412backed Yes | 52c | 152.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 65 | 75.4%49 W · 16 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4a…9de3backed Yes | 30c | 134$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 60c | 130$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc073…89b3backed Yes | 62c | 91.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 45c | 85.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 36c | 61.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…73b2backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +246.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac1f…906ebacked Yes | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 24cpaid | +220.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…f503backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaa…4083backed Yes | 80c | 38.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…fa31backed Yes | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +304%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 February 2-8?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,900 February 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.