Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34f954c88f55b0a5bddb9a00f19932de40095355bd5591eec0d6e9abae6d58bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca5…8727backed Yes | 9c | 4,554$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,144.14 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +280.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f05…8a73backed Yes | 14c | 4,286$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,685.71 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…cc11backed Yes | 6c | 4,167$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,916.67 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…56bcbacked No | 36c | 4,073$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.86 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 74c | 3,495$2,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,571.38 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 60c | 2,787$1,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.57 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…2530backed Yes | 56c | 2,111$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.43 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked No | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa46…25f4backed Yes | 51c | 1,900$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +61%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…0464backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed Yes | 67c | 1,260$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.56 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…e275backed No | 79c | 1,160$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…42eebacked Yes | 22c | 909.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Yes | 12c | 858.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.33 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224c…ee07backed Yes | 14c | 734.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.29 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 16c | 727.62$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.75 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…7607backed Yes | 23c | 663.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.46 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 650$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…270cbacked Yes | 9c | 561.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +262.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 26c | 522.18$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.41 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +7.2wins | +0.40per pick | 15cpaid | +556.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 19c | 499.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.43 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 323$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.58 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 8c | 318.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 65c | 307.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedcd…a1c7backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.25 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…c312backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 79c | 249$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7612…7b76backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 37c | 195.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 46c | 159$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac1f…906ebacked Yes | 26c | 144.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 24cpaid | +220.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 52c | 111.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb09a…7fc7backed Yes | 19c | 105.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xffb5…92c3backed No | 57c | 80.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 18c | 77.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 25c | 74.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed Yes | 79c | 74.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977e…decebacked No | 61c | 62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde3f…8ce7backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b0…3b60backed Yes | 26c | 58.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…45e6backed Yes | 45c | 37.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7824…f95fbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 70c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 2-8?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,900 February 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.