TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x977e…dece

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
41
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Commodities, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 51 out of 100; worst NHL at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-47%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
NHL — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.25
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Canadiens backed Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.05
Oilers vs. Predatorsbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$10.6
Ducks vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+69.5%+$9.84
Avalanche vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$88.36
Bruins vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+75.4%+$8.6
Flames vs. Kingsbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+177.8%+$25.6
Canadiens vs. Rangersbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Kraken vs. Utah: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$12.4
Stars vs. Jetsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+72.4%+$8.4
Red Wings vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$11.4
Sharks vs. Flamesbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$12.6
Blue Jackets vs. Canucksbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Devils vs. Sharksbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.5
All 15 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana reach $110 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.24
Will Solana reach $100 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.6
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 27-May 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.43
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+72.4%+$12.6
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25%+$3.8
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 2-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+81.8%+$9
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 2-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$38
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$57.4
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 2-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$196.79
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+257.1%+$72
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+56.2%+$10.8
All 11 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$55.44
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$21.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.