NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Utah: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91c58b94764069603e1df1fc21c224b9548b9c932f5f3b870546cf7c3e5f87b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…3551backed Under | 76c | 855.56$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 39c | 546.85$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.69 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 71c | 526.26$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.01 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 20c | 400$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Under | 60c | 391.03$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.62 | 200 | 47.5%95 W · 105 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…66a1backed Over | 29c | 390$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 276.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.01 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c78…1af0backed Under | 62c | 137.1$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Under | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 372 | 54.3%202 W · 170 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 40c | 63.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Under | 60c | 57.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 42c | 56.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…bc0dbacked Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Under | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833e…f756backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over | 39c | 32.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Under | 61c | 32.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa63d…f4e8backed Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 40c | 24.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 61c | 22.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ee…31cabacked Under | 59c | 20.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x977e…decebacked Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kraken vs. Utah: O/U 6.5this page
- Kraken vs. UtahUtah won
- Kraken vs. Utah: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)Utah won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.