Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 27-May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x522df4d843123e819bbc1d004f382ec2329a63eb17e01ea236e440213a6aca4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 15c | 13,869$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,025 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 14c | 7,909$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.42 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 1c | 4,500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +599.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacc9…c790backed Yes | 2c | 4,055$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf82…17febacked Yes | 1c | 3,712$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 22c | 2,626$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.08 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…c7a9backed Yes | 17c | 2,330$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 77c | 2,256$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.03 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 79c | 1,158$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.27 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 988.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 8c | 950$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +94%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…3772backed Yes | 3c | 680$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 3c | 667.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47a…6d60backed Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 581.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed No | 77c | 495.86$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.06 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 10c | 172.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf56…97edbacked Yes | 18c | 132.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92f…20b2backed Yes | 16c | 106.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977e…decebacked Yes | 30c | 95.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8133…6a9abacked No | 76c | 88.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7297…4fa8backed No | 77c | 46.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…6d22backed No | 74c | 24.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 27-May 3?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 April 27-May 3?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 27-May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.