Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 April 27-May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ef24f1906da19120912d14074dd70dc33c150b94b9f2a879df1d33825d7c045
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1465…7072backed No | 70c | 15,550$10,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,633.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 40c | 10,939$4,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,340.47 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 35c | 4,001$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.72 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 48c | 2,081$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 1,784$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.95 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 73c | 1,526$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.86 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…4deebacked Yes | 4c | 1,262$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed Yes | 65c | 860$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.8 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 3c | 784.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 50c | 769.99$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.96 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…6bfcbacked Yes | 4c | 762.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0b…422dbacked Yes | 4c | 533.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…c86ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 4c | 311.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 48c | 301.3$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.68 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 267.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…5186backed No | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…ed1fbacked No | 69c | 250$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 74c | 211.87$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe52d…3728backed Yes | 16c | 210$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…6ebcbacked Yes | 42c | 197.62$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…e8c0backed No | 54c | 183.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…95e7backed No | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…1cc3backed Yes | 15c | 125.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…9031backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f9…a0f1backed Yes | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfb…9ebabacked Yes | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ea…236abacked Yes | 29c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9402…ce26backed Yes | 60c | 88.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…3041backed Yes | 20c | 66.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…e5adbacked Yes | 39c | 64.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac36…349dbacked No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…0425backed No | 48c | 46.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…4d5ebacked Yes | 35c | 40.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee4…a85fbacked Yes | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…b65bbacked Yes | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb3…fbafbacked No | 66c | 31.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b3…4098backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…3944backed No | 42c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3317…c0fabacked Yes | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…de14backed Yes | 67c | 23.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6afc…0fd5backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 April 27-May 3?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 April 27-May 3?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 27-May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.