TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Oilers vs. Predators

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Predatorsof Oilers, Predators
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,801,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,782,350

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,801,838 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 617 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe405…d969backed Oilers0c554,833$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.3520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-71.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98f7…b3e4backed Oilers56c332,760$184,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184,916.0910753.3%57 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Predators44c200,000$88,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111,999.7822443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Predators46c165,904$76,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89,643.2556152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Predators46c62,553$28,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,810.7138748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Oilers54c59,884$32,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,087.091,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1222…2aa7backed Oilers53c50,766$26,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,825.114654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Predators45c46,270$20,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,275.831,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Predators45c37,013$16,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,318.911,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6afe…be23backed Oilers0c35,497$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Predators45c30,646$13,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,820.22,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Oilers55c29,599$16,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,162.4267051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Predators45c23,000$10,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,6505052%26 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Predators45c21,794$9,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,879.2315949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Oilers52c21,000$10,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,919.8911745.3%53 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Predators47c20,000$9,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,60032946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d8a…e842backed Oilers55c19,412$10,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,627.512458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Predators46c18,346$8,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,996.091,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Oilers56c17,857$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Oilers52c17,222$8,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,949.3532744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf90e…0b56backed Oilers52c16,244$8,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,446.6313449.3%66 W · 68 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Oilers56c16,041$8,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,965.361,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Oilers55c16,000$8,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,8003647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Oilers49c15,772$7,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,654.138738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Predators45c15,573$7,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,564.9322550.2%113 W · 112 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccdb…ffa9backed Oilers56c12,500$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0002846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Predators45c11,771$5,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,443.952,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Oilers52c10,824$5,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,628.3630944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Predators48c10,649$5,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,537.3433243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Predators45c10,499$4,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,774.197946.8%37 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Oilers52c10,452$5,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,435.082540%10 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-26.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Predators48c10,000$4,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,249.998252.4%43 W · 39 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd89e…35fabacked Oilers55c10,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,499.99825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-52.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Predators47c9,037$4,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,775.221,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Oilers55c8,610$4,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,712.8561953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Oilers56c8,000$4,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,48021036.2%76 W · 134 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Predators46c7,500$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,05056649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Oilers53c7,080$3,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,755.431,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Oilers55c7,000$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,85061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Predators45c6,997$3,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,869.1651044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Predators47c6,500$3,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,444.971,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Oilers52c6,343$3,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,31512552%65 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Oilers51c5,500$2,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,824.9366951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Oilers55c5,450$2,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,997.4715145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Oilers52c5,385$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Predators46c5,312$2,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,868.464841.7%20 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Oilers52c5,182$2,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,688.268650%43 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Oilers52c5,145$2,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,675.387162%44 W · 27 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed Predators45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7505152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Predators45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,750333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Predators45c5,000$2,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,739.9958352.1%304 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Predators45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.813948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Predators44c4,951$2,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,772.5748549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Predators46c4,517$2,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,46045955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Predators51c4,407$2,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,138.5489636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Predators46c4,404$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.383149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Predators48c4,232$2,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,200.671,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Oilers52c4,200$2,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,183.994866.7%32 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Predators49c4,073$1,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,087.0123047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Predators47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Predators45c4,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.9924945.4%113 W · 136 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Oilers55c4,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.9531654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Predators46c3,757$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.0547951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Predators45c3,611$1,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,969.5279350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Oilers56c3,571$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00011953.8%64 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Oilers55c3,407$1,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,865.536157.4%35 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Predators45c3,338$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,835.9528251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f5a…4a26backed Oilers56c3,214$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Predators45c3,089$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.9528353%150 W · 133 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Predators45c3,078$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,692.783554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Predators45c3,006$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,653.3764242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Oilers55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.9868449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Oilers47c2,912$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.052,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Predators44c2,763$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.2830551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Predators46c2,754$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.7462249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Oilers52c2,727$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,418.0222150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Oilers54c2,700$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.471,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84de…c1e3backed Oilers56c2,679$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Oilers1c2,666$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.667450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Predators45c2,644$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,454.448543.5%37 W · 48 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Predators45c2,520$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,38611252.7%59 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Predators48c2,474$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.596058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Predators45c2,400$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32022946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x461b…ca27backed Oilers56c2,321$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Oilers54c2,261$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.121,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Oilers55c2,220$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22127048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ba…78d7backed Predators49c2,188$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.74425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Predators46c2,174$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.919846.9%46 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Oilers55c2,064$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.0825449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Oilers52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0401,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Oilers55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Oilers54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0808252.4%43 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Predators45c1,999$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.512,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Predators45c1,954$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.71,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Predators47c1,914$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.4414753.7%79 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Predators45c1,900$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04514848%71 W · 77 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c51…29aabacked Oilers52c1,780$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.68425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefa5…3d34backed Oilers48c1,681$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8111136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b0…df60backed Predators45c1,656$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.561827.8%5 W · 13 L-5.4wins-0.30per pick58cpaid-52.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Oilers51c1,638$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.4133345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.