Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x152dd747f8bb0daa817a6e489d8e1155bc10306501c62309056c7221e3f9c958
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1cc…e7c6backed Yes | 1c | 9,991$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…8727backed Yes | 4c | 9,828$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.62 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +280.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 4c | 8,491$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 2c | 4,655$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,182$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac1f…906ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,078$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.95 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 24cpaid | +220.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 14c | 2,485$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…42eebacked Yes | 4c | 2,361$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 2c | 1,998$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,728$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 1c | 1,727$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,694$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d54…e1f8backed Yes | 7c | 1,515$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +1,064.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +599.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 863.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 3c | 849.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 3c | 791.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 3c | 749.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 2c | 718.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 3c | 681.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa46…25f4backed Yes | 12c | 600$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +61%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9b5ebacked Yes | 28c | 600$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed Yes | 19c | 578.84$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 5c | 518.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…4735backed Yes | 7c | 512.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaa…4083backed Yes | 5c | 396.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 29c | 347.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Yes | 9c | 330.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dd…2e52backed Yes | 12c | 224.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…96e2backed Yes | 6c | 215.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 8c | 214.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…f36fbacked Yes | 27c | 213.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 8c | 186.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +306.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…9900backed Yes | 7c | 142.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 107.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes | 16c | 101.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53a…c045backed Yes | 18c | 68.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 2-8?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,900 February 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.