TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$317,197
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$348,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $317,197 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd159…0603backed Yes8c41,875$3,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,457.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f6…4cf4backed Yes3c19,548$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.691435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes16c10,318$1,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.4614135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes12c8,793$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.9916854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes17c7,714$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.710834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes11c5,767$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.616256.5%35 W · 27 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc743…44d8backed Yes11c5,709$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-57%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes2c5,415$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.919810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes5c4,751$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.117420.3%15 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed No60c4,543$2,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,821.53268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.9wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+34.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1f2c…dcbbbacked Yes19c4,525$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc212…a125backed Yes35c4,344$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.572552%13 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes12c4,294$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.187038.6%27 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes15c3,921$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.3341238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No80c3,149$2,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.7510055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes38c2,942$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+54.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes16c2,885$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.328320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes14c2,676$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.423859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…51b7backed Yes21c2,293$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.161030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No76c2,107$1,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.35349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cf5…5ca2backed Yes23c1,574$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.931136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-51.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes13c1,422$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.177432.4%24 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes11c1,185$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.688640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb12d…62b4backed Yes11c1,137$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.314131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x234b…9f7ebacked Yes6c1,116$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked No78c1,107$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.095532.7%18 W · 37 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc7c0…d714backed Yes12c1,070$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74b5…e2ffbacked No76c1,052$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.263151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6e0…8412backed Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c1,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x381f…bc99backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d3…777fbacked Yes13c975.27$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcdf…085ebacked Yes19c953.15$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.11030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b0f…100dbacked Yes11c929.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c817.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.891,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f38…dac6backed Yes13c783$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d3b…3714backed Yes3c761$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.19540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae5…8eb3backed Yes3c757.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7790%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No54c738$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.743966.7%26 W · 13 L+10.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+133.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes27c702.34$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-68.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4346…28c0backed Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd94…b271backed Yes30c664.88$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.52161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcca…aebabacked Yes2c602.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-76.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Yes21c600$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1283737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes25c550.1$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5321634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d59…bb6dbacked Yes2c528.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No70c519.13$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.1711646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4f7…9769backed Yes12c517.12$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.051513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed Yes39c516.31$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95d6…9aeabacked Yes16c515.08$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes13c500$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6418746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes34c499.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702437.5%9 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+68.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes13c476.92$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629831.6%31 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b2d…f0d4backed Yes13c474.81$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x232f…a5afbacked Yes36c465.54$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.54137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick29cpaid-65%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes14c447.14$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8821022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b05…c6c8backed Yes10c402.34$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.75520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-73.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes13c400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524429.5%13 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes13c400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526357.1%36 W · 27 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+59.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed Yes13c391.67$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.923441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…a820backed Yes13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77c8…3c60backed Yes13c372.85$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes41c358.19$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.7814819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35a6…b946backed Yes13c352.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6442…ccbabacked No64c347.44$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.44580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c43…113bbacked Yes27c313.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes13c307.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401520%3 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb7c…c3d7backed Yes12c300.59$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf62c…f445backed Yes13c287.38$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.362626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No51c264.75$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.142272.7%16 W · 6 L+5.0wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+45.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes10c256$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.66277.4%2 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-70.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7c0…da43backed Yes11c251.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb293…6d52backed Yes19c250$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.53135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-29.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes16c246.68$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.73724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf422…6743backed Yes42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004119.5%8 W · 33 L-6.5wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-48.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No64c232.49$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2311848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee67…5bd2backed Yes22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec2a…81c1backed Yes9c226.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed Yes18c223.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes13c207.69$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+72.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes27c205$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.653432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2218725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd621…db65backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301414.3%2 W · 12 L-4.8wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-71.1%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xfd12…53fabacked Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3460%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9b2…4e0cbacked Yes39c193.11$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.313551.4%18 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes13c192.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254928.6%14 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b1a…ee7bbacked Yes40c187.16$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-72.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5088…8844backed Yes16c187.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae1…5cacbacked Yes13c180.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes20c179$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.83240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x418f…b7b6backed Yes12c176.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-66.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6c0…d6dcbacked Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked No65c164.44$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.816643.4%72 W · 94 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes20c160.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4522641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5043…1399backed Yes15c160$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86f2…8914backed Yes7c157.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5cb…27b3backed Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-53.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dc2…518dbacked Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4a6…b961backed Yes11c148.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f7…b6a3backed Yes14c147.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.