Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0c072bdc5e71027cec29ba9cf26ddf526ab7511a8c01dd23ee6ddcda2b9065b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf812…b1a3backed Yes | 2c | 62,659$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 3c | 9,891$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.77 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 2c | 6,397$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed Yes | 1c | 5,166$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,501$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 2c | 1,125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 1,010$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 5c | 988.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 2c | 645.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 635$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump meet with Narendra Modi in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.