Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in his first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3b783068d35229e45279cc8f3d707c1d141404be27e4439226d3b9895e5a322
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 10c | 3,187$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.38 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 305$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 7c | 296.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…df91backed Yes | 75c | 269.96$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 6c | 263.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…959cbacked No | 80c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d1…f1babacked No | 74c | 41.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d06…7821backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 56c | 35.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b3…8c9fbacked No | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f6…5078backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9a…cd1cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in his first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump meet with Narendra Modi in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.