Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf23c7bd9731e33388b28e5586cf86e4c52c3bb948d1b6e6a3965e4fad189e79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a79…5adebacked Yes | 8c | 1,239$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 519.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f0…9fe9backed Yes | 5c | 327$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 38c | 309$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.27 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 54c | 306$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.97 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 276.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 69c | 257$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bca…71cdbacked Yes | 5c | 229$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 132$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 39c | 116.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed No | 65c | 71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 70c | 65.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe28…0ad9backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump meet with Narendra Modi in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.