Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 4-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3523a8d60b4387a9b1b25c094cf77ece9494b975ba2212bf1904329d3f0c348b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63f3…b6c8backed Yes | 1c | 3,471$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,041$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.63 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 1c | 2,019$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 1,872$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 2c | 1,358$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +306.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3293…f898backed Yes | 3c | 984.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes | 17c | 979.55$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.62 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 17c | 765.95$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.31 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 18c | 635.88$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.36 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aeb…76f9backed Yes | 11c | 589.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 10c | 557.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 5c | 388.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4258…b969backed Yes | 7c | 384.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…0cd4backed Yes | 13c | 180$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 13c | 149$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 8c | 125.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…a7babacked Yes | 19c | 107.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3321…6ff5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac7b…b2ccbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…951dbacked Yes | 17c | 96.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f41…46d4backed No | 80c | 41.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 4-11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times October 4-11?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times October 4-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.