Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times October 4-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bee4c06e7f640451367f4841ba6f684e6332aec93f7c8e40e17987ee9dd021b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 5c | 2,882$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.15 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…c5aebacked Yes | 8c | 1,184$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 8c | 953.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21dc…3c76backed Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 6c | 466.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 7c | 451.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 3c | 441$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…fa3dbacked Yes | 7c | 383.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 9c | 311.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 8c | 265$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7b…b2ccbacked Yes | 8c | 256.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 8c | 213.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa28f…d25ebacked Yes | 10c | 205.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa316…780cbacked Yes | 7c | 201.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times October 4-11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times October 4-11?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times October 4-11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times October 4-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.