Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $2.00 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9adc36a90457f77e8fbd4c6cad5a5a1b4c697975ffa380bd9032c692c817654
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $217,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Yes | 1c | 13,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 5,226$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.57 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…0ff7backed Yes | 1c | 4,663$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1afc…7545backed Yes | 2c | 4,094$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c11…7605backed Yes | 2c | 3,925$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 3,299$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 7c | 3,115$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.63 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34eb…c51dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,034$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf151…0e4dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,014$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,719$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 11c | 2,318$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.05 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f64…52d2backed Yes | 3c | 2,310$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 12c | 2,171$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.77 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 2,125$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 5c | 1,901$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…edfebacked Yes | 2c | 1,855$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d2…3287backed Yes | 4c | 1,754$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…552cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,720$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd5…2711backed Yes | 3c | 1,540$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9415…8668backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,459$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes | 4c | 1,453$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…c2dcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,430$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 2c | 1,394$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…aababacked Yes | 4c | 1,255$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6087…61e8backed Yes | 7c | 1,137$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.97 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd82f…75ffbacked Yes | 27c | 1,113$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 20cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,031$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d1…4618backed Yes | 2c | 950.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 896.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 797.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 4c | 789.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 747.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…8738backed No | 74c | 710$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe084…04c0backed Yes | 26c | 710$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 691.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…b71abacked Yes | 2c | 529.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3f…8cd6backed Yes | 15c | 519.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025f…25cfbacked Yes | 16c | 496.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 6c | 416$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 7c | 404$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bd…193abacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 18cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 6c | 394.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5d1bbacked Yes | 3c | 322.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e48…778cbacked Yes | 13c | 311$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 12c | 310$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…e326backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…3d19backed Yes | 13c | 269$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e36…e5ccbacked Yes | 9c | 209.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 9c | 201.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaecf…a030backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…631dbacked Yes | 14c | 178.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 16c | 174.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed Yes | 12c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Yes | 14c | 143.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5716…b506backed No | 80c | 142.81$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746b…3484backed Yes | 9c | 131.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…d43dbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…af95backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373f…1878backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…5699backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec44…9b7bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 96.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdba0…b5c0backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed No | 68c | 74.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…a497backed Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +248.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc9…0165backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d435backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…e484backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in February?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.20 in February?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.40 in February?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in February?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in February?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in February?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 in February?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 in February?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.