Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b65416cc58c3d0d3c2ddf400d4db75a327d457f71fa6db27f4a6e53fa50fa1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $275,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $238,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $275,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 7c | 28,081$1,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832.24 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…cc11backed Yes | 3c | 14,147$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…4429backed Yes | 1c | 7,986$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.81 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f64…52d2backed Yes | 0c | 7,850$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 3c | 7,000$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.95 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209d…43cebacked Yes | 13c | 6,713$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.12 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…9e92backed Yes | 4c | 6,669$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 4c | 6,097$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…640bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,713$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes | 6c | 5,085$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 4,825$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.43 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…c27ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,446$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed No | 78c | 3,413$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.33 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…fbc2backed Yes | 2c | 2,674$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,472$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c4…a051backed Yes | 3c | 2,163$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2703backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 2c | 1,967$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 5c | 1,731$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 4c | 1,492$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,211$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,121$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92f…24dabacked Yes | 5c | 1,087$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 30c | 986.78$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.55 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 3c | 945.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 943.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 2c | 933.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e2…b8b5backed Yes | 6c | 866.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 837.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…df20backed Yes | 6c | 749$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…cf78backed Yes | 6c | 737$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1d…1e79backed Yes | 10c | 718.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2764…1280backed Yes | 6c | 700$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c03…811ebacked Yes | 17c | 700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 3c | 689.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f89…9363backed Yes | 4c | 681.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 4c | 629.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da4…bb27backed Yes | 11c | 618.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 606.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 4c | 599.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 2c | 590.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 2c | 514.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 6c | 461.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e93…e71abacked Yes | 8c | 456.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x034e…f79dbacked Yes | 5c | 455.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb8…1344backed Yes | 6c | 437$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 14c | 409.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 33c | 321.09$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…e266backed Yes | 13c | 290$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…a20bbacked Yes | 6c | 287$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fc…7887backed Yes | 10c | 204.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb383…96f8backed Yes | 23c | 204.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec68…a36fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338d…6d82backed Yes | 14c | 194.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…06a2backed Yes | 8c | 157.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb713…f288backed Yes | 7c | 154.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ff…3460backed Yes | 17c | 146.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…b943backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 21c | 119.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Yes | 19c | 97.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +150%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 82.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8d…4f17backed Yes | 29c | 62.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dde…cf61backed Yes | 37c | 40.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa52…3607backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.20 in February?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.40 in February?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in February?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in February?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in February?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 in February?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 in February?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.