Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x701ae53104d5e128343a6b9ea07a403837af04c814f173d0c135c6da049a2fae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef10…0b43backed No | 53c | 11,432$6,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,060.46 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…eac8backed Yes | 50c | 8,018$4,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,982.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 71c | 7,676$5,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,217.18 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 49c | 5,008$2,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,564.24 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 2,750$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed No | 54c | 2,370$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa78a…2f5cbacked Yes | 50c | 2,005$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.38per pick | 34cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 7c | 1,370$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.22per pick | 26cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 10c | 899.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…90e2backed No | 51c | 777.69$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 686.26$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…7f28backed No | 34c | 502.76$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78eb…9a2bbacked Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +92%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 9c | 431.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 49c | 366.25$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.19 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda88…990bbacked No | 37c | 270.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.34per pick | 42cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 46c | 243.34$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 241.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…65c8backed Yes | 42c | 238.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.39per pick | 25cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 9c | 215.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e93…e71abacked Yes | 37c | 210$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f02…1395backed Yes | 48c | 208.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +332.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 10c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 51c | 195.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.06 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 48c | 136.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…3309backed Yes | 55c | 126.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 49c | 123.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed No | 50c | 118.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea2…40efbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…de36backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 59c | 68.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…fe47backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6f27…d37ebacked Yes | 50c | 53.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 60c | 48.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1904…23d3backed Yes | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 51c | 31.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde52…a625backed Yes | 80c | 26.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 50c | 23.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 in February?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.20 in February?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.40 in February?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in February?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in February?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in February?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 in February?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in February?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.