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Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon January 6 protestors on Day 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$223,396
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$232,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,396 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaee7…05e9backed No0c12,267$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.62045%9 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f13…45eebacked No18c11,974$2,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,193.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No6c10,486$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.183859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b5c…5731backed No4c9,815$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6125…089cbacked No30c8,357$2,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,503.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes71c7,893$5,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,265.616943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes74c7,620$5,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,980.142245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No28c5,037$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.818219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed Yes59c4,852$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,001.442650%13 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fb…5bb6backed Yes72c4,152$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.66742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x856f…e1d7backed No26c4,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.993333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+56.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f33…89cfbacked No20c3,917$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.212352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed Yes70c3,487$2,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.565158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No1c3,075$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.410035%35 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66af…d58ebacked No29c3,000$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a3a…ee52backed No22c3,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.932437.5%9 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+68.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes67c2,800$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.565038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes71c2,506$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.618746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes67c2,222$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.2411848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x163a…6388backed No43c2,093$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0d1…2b32backed No24c1,977$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Yes72c1,926$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.321145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-29%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No23c1,888$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.476838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb97d…b68cbacked Yes65c1,859$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.421942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes71c1,586$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.074032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid+5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes76c1,483$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.6817452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes68c1,481$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.0712740.2%51 W · 76 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3140…fbbebacked No34c1,317$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes66c1,315$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.699629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3e8…77d2backed No7c1,250$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.48175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-84.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed No29c1,175$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.027728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16d5…5e0cbacked Yes67c1,171$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.391275%9 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4929…2c0dbacked No33c1,154$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.1820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes69c1,151$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.49846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No24c1,137$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.5196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38cd…a557backed Yes61c1,107$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.335147.1%24 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc2…a7d9backed No3c1,102$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No32c1,046$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.6241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f29…dd03backed Yes73c1,009$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.46742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25a…7dd5backed Yes65c1,005$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3551546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae61…4e32backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10140%0 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4451…c6afbacked Yes69c999.99$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3103023.3%7 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed No27c981.19$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.922931%9 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac92…67efbacked Yes69c945.04$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.161520%3 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-68%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No3c900$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2714241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes57c840.14$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.265433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdde5…fd02backed No2c840.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd17d…b50dbacked No9c826.91$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No31c814.23$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.37834.6%27 W · 51 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb4…21c1backed Yes71c771.76$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.682040%8 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd840…c8b3backed Yes63c766.92$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.531163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+61.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x662e…f342backed Yes68c728.56$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c47…9b02backed No35c683.13$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.413167.7%21 W · 10 L+6.3wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+108.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed No31c671.9$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.647639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes70c664.82$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.834146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa47e…5d1ebacked Yes69c648.04$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.041631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No11c624.03$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6a4…abc9backed No48c595.96$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.82540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde17…a5b2backed No30c567.97$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked Yes61c530$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.12250%11 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No25c517.47$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.758632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes70c512.95$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.264314%6 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4be…76b7backed No39c508.2$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes56c500.46$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.937646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13515238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc629…aa40backed No33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1652138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb572…9239backed Yes67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1654339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5f8…c356backed Yes66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1703100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No30c499.63$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.8911950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38ef…de5dbacked Yes80c496.97$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes71c491.64$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.9716854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No27c491.1$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.311,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5e1…decdbacked No23c485$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.42842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No29c482.99$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3817633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36d1…c21fbacked No23c440.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x676e…52c5backed No32c439.99$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddea…5b2bbacked No6c426.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8340%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bc5…a867backed Yes70c425.67$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.71050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes64c418.08$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.8123543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes76c410$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.57428.4%21 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed Yes80c403.13$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.278377.1%64 W · 19 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+15.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked No16c400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-50.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked No32c400$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.763925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f55…ae43backed No5c391.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe157…6db1backed Yes69c384.02$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.971764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6325…6912backed No24c380.44$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.11837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebbc…ad30backed Yes70c371.73$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-52.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes73c365.07$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.8322641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x758a…4893backed Yes71c362.39$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.263050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No27c362.38$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.128646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed No34c361$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.974233.3%14 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes63c352.55$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.95514.5%8 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-58.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52c1…99b3backed No17c351.29$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2060…bfacbacked No30c350$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad86…cd10backed No29c350$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac36…aff1backed Yes66c349.2$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.73850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a7e…36bcbacked No39c347.11$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.46966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7a0…0fb8backed No28c346.51$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+59.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01ee…4c4fbacked Yes73c342.47$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6718…80d1backed Yes72c314.86$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.235328.3%15 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.