NBA · resolved market
Will Lebron tweet again in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66542fea09de637409dbd93e76da96f10e4e7e811465fe5af1ce75a30eb87360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…19e3backed Yes | 27c | 1,830$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…2c7abacked Yes | 38c | 1,729$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 62c | 1,560$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…b4febacked No | 74c | 1,279$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 18c | 600$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8897…dab3backed Yes | 13c | 449.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…2da2backed No | 78c | 425.7$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…22f4backed No | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…728dbacked No | 69c | 250$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…2114backed No | 65c | 249.79$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 10c | 241.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 7c | 196.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…02a1backed No | 78c | 185.06$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 121$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 65c | 120.96$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 35c | 108$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed No | 62c | 104.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf577…972ebacked Yes | 10c | 100.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…9ac8backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…0b04backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd51…0aebbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 141 | 29.1%41 W · 100 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…c0f2backed No | 66c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b29…d0a8backed No | 68c | 43.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…c97ebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x190e…6bf6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked No | 77c | 39.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ff…ee8abacked Yes | 34c | 32.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…02bbbacked No | 78c | 31.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…a347backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…fc4cbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…4932backed No | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fa…9cfabacked No | 72c | 22.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…8715backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.