TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x41c7…c8fb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
85
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: College Football, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category College Football at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2last resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT3528.6%10 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
CS2 — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs paiN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group Dbacked Wildcard · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group Dbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.43
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group Cbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$14.3
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked FOKUS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$506Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$505.52
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs ECHO (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-Inbacked ECHO · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$19.8
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MAGICOS (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 Playoffsbacked MAGICOS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$622.95
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group Cbacked 3DMAX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+37%+$9.25
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winnerbacked 3DMAX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+25%+$5
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group Dbacked MOUZ NXT · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffsbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffsbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$53.53
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffsbacked TDK · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.81
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffsbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.03
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.99
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit - Map 2 Winnerbacked RED Canids · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked RED Canids · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.2
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked 3DMAX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.45
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked 3DMAX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$705Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$795
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffsbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$426Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$425.57
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$102.7
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playoffsbacked Bebop · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$196.63
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stagebacked EYEBALLERS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+163.3%+$313.08
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+70.7%+$40.96
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+26.3%+$4.72
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.75
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.23
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$656Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$212.85
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$925Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$925.08
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$11.67
United States vs. Belgium: Neither team to score first?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.18
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.41
Will England win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$9.76
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$8.58
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$73.55
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick42cpaid-61.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+51%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+85.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ohio State vs. Indianabacked Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+194.1%+$29.12
Michigan vs. Northwesternbacked Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+35.1%+$31.62
South Carolina vs. Texas A&Mbacked Texas A&M · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+26.3%+$24.23
All 3 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2last resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$62.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$16.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+72.4%+$10.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$43.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$19.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
San Francisco Giants vs. Athleticsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Lions (-10.5)backed Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.