TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Suns vs. Thunder

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sunsof Suns, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,201,945
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,162,018

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,201,945 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 821 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0eb7…1f17backed Thunder33c72,340$23,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,997.642348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Suns29c39,868$11,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,458.5311137.8%42 W · 69 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Suns72c37,648$27,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,541.434257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Suns42c28,421$11,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,450.9112529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Thunder26c26,124$6,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,669.821,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae1…9fadbacked Suns26c22,969$5,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,979.354957.1%28 W · 21 L+6.4wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Thunder32c21,338$6,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,739.342,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Suns73c21,028$15,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,600.741,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Thunder61c20,956$12,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,751.6620744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73ff…0facbacked Thunder74c17,478$12,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,934.036357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Suns27c17,434$4,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,704.1219957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Thunder71c17,042$12,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,133.4321350.7%108 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder42c17,039$7,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,156.559,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4900…4a72backed Suns76c15,520$11,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,740.135940.7%24 W · 35 L-12.5wins-0.21per pick62cpaid-41.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Suns27c14,964$3,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,996.9727546.2%127 W · 148 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14cc…7c02backed Suns27c13,886$3,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,073.1713842.8%59 W · 79 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Thunder70c13,490$9,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,421.481,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Suns26c10,942$2,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,130.6661851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Suns51c10,854$5,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,319.619650.5%99 W · 97 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Thunder26c10,665$2,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,794.3636023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa89e…fb60backed Thunder70c10,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,999.935379.2%42 W · 11 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder39c9,950$3,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,923.498,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Thunder42c9,819$4,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,107.161,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf62d…2a10backed Thunder33c9,642$3,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,196.491735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-35.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Thunder30c9,255$2,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,776.511335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Thunder29c9,221$2,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,672.0718941.8%79 W · 110 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Thunder28c9,032$2,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,528.9859646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Thunder30c8,970$2,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,718.441,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Thunder48c8,040$3,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,883.093,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c5f…7a4ebacked Thunder71c7,615$5,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,406.37616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick50cpaid-70.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3829…137ebacked Suns72c7,511$5,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,102.961560%9 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Suns29c7,240$2,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,125.175747.4%27 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x705d…b380backed Suns70c6,751$4,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025.44666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Thunder72c6,657$4,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,793.131,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…0f2bbacked Suns34c6,638$2,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,381.036440.6%26 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Suns27c5,899$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,325.9386641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Thunder8c5,128$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.161,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Thunder1c4,531$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.197211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd577…2bb7backed Thunder73c4,401$3,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,212.39977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+37.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Suns25c4,309$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,214.0743438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd21…a494backed Thunder68c4,283$2,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,912.275246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7988…a671backed Suns79c4,078$3,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.11955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe0…d994backed Suns33c4,051$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,701.7837448.7%182 W · 192 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x661a…e9e8backed Suns29c4,047$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,892.1560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+214.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Suns30c3,953$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,750.984,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Thunder55c3,946$2,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,170.4412756.7%72 W · 55 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Suns30c3,832$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,685.736954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdab7…24ecbacked Suns62c3,763$2,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.8516065%104 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Suns26c3,670$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,715.717441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Suns68c3,608$2,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.141,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Suns31c3,525$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,432.5128649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Suns69c3,458$2,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.6166248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Suns25c3,138$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,338.4472450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Thunder32c3,088$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.3162144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x093e…54c1backed Thunder60c3,021$1,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,827.271752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41c7…c8fbbacked Suns29c3,000$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,130911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick42cpaid-61.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Thunder1c3,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.58820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Suns50c3,000$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.1432540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder72c2,943$2,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,118.756,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Thunder50c2,885$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.512142.1%51 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Suns78c2,879$2,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.9189850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d03…9e27backed Suns27c2,825$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.518532.9%28 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd307…f4d1backed Suns73c2,737$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.321442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d43…ce68backed Suns74c2,661$1,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.7417247.7%82 W · 90 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Thunder68c2,606$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.568344.6%37 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Thunder23c2,535$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.1763746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x354b…4744backed Suns27c2,510$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,832.42650%13 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0440…a03fbacked Suns79c2,455$1,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.796066.7%40 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe06…d5d5backed Suns27c2,451$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.367143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Thunder29c2,438$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.8830157.1%172 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf11…c679backed Thunder73c2,428$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770.843663.9%23 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+38%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked Thunder20c2,380$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4764129.3%12 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x822d…66d5backed Thunder69c2,314$1,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.66520%1 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.45per pick65cpaid-73.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1acc…8fe0backed Suns29c2,301$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,633.8518043.9%79 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5887…994ebacked Thunder16c2,290$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.034953.1%26 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Suns30c2,248$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,573.678748.3%42 W · 45 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Suns36c2,109$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.771,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Suns31c2,100$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,453.9955346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Thunder57c2,051$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.0414355.9%80 W · 63 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Suns27c2,026$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.6947436.7%174 W · 300 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Thunder2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Thunder73c2,000$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46025641.4%106 W · 150 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12a0…3c0ebacked Thunder74c1,995$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.615853.8%85 W · 73 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9916…bcb2backed Suns32c1,993$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.0418743.3%81 W · 106 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ba4…fd40backed Thunder71c1,992$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,414.196628.8%19 W · 47 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fba…26dcbacked Thunder70c1,963$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.579361.3%57 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6abc…bd1bbacked Thunder39c1,959$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.6414549%71 W · 74 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3539…0b08backed Suns31c1,956$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.62977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick51cpaid+58.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Thunder3c1,897$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.954434.1%15 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Thunder2c1,882$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.661258%10 W · 115 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-43.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Suns27c1,870$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.3960944.8%273 W · 336 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Thunder17c1,833$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.288846.6%41 W · 47 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26eb…22d0backed Suns29c1,824$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.3127735%97 W · 180 L-30.7wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Thunder17c1,809$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.688942.7%38 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Thunder70c1,805$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.692,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7656…67bbbacked Thunder69c1,778$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick70cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder67c1,662$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.195,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf21…7e3dbacked Thunder40c1,642$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.815952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Thunder21c1,628$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.815032%16 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd750…e32cbacked Thunder67c1,600$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-69.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.