NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd31189fd0f7693b0117d710bfdc9072b5aab5ad6bfd19b8f999084fde085d3cb

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Sunsof Thunder, Suns
Resolved: Apr 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,066
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,042

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,066 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0eb7…1f17backed Thunder	65c	7,506$4,896 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,895.67	423	48%203 W · 220 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Suns	38c	4,395$1,666 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,729.23	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Suns	39c	3,750$1,463 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,287.59	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder	61c	3,212$1,959 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,959.34	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Suns	35c	1,254$439 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$815.15	688	38.5%265 W · 423 L	-26.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder	61c	416.67$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.67	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac8e…0218backed Suns	46c	319.28$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.89	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.54per pick	46cpaid	+118.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c5…8154backed Thunder	56c	296.95$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed Thunder	62c	254.07$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.52	275	49.5%136 W · 139 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Thunder	21c	250.27$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.57	1,317	47.8%629 W · 688 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Suns	44c	248.11$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.94	1,433	47.2%676 W · 757 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Suns	38c	223.34$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.47	1,399	46.4%649 W · 750 L	-13.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Thunder	60c	213.53$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.09	1,277	47.2%603 W · 674 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Suns	21c	200$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.2	404	40.1%162 W · 242 L	+12.4wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Suns	22c	159$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.71	804	40.3%324 W · 480 L	+27.4wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Thunder	57c	140$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.8	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Suns	22c	125$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.95	312	38.5%120 W · 192 L	+15.3wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Suns	23c	113.44$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.51	786	39.2%308 W · 478 L	+27.5wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Suns	25c	106$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.5	138	37.7%52 W · 86 L	+5.6wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Suns	42c	100.79$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.71	935	43.6%408 W · 527 L	-32.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Thunder	61c	100$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	384	64.3%247 W · 137 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf4f…f538backed Suns	25c	100$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	73	39.7%29 W · 44 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Suns	25c	100$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	177	48%85 W · 92 L	+16.4wins	+0.09per pick	39cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x27e9…f09ebacked Suns	25c	100$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	78	39.7%31 W · 47 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Suns	43c	89.82$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.2	620	49%304 W · 316 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Suns	42c	76.29$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.25	167	43.7%73 W · 94 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d7…d31abacked Thunder	22c	66.23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.57	216	40.3%87 W · 129 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+43.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Suns	40c	63.6$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.16	637	46.6%297 W · 340 L	-16.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder	58c	54.78$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.77	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Suns	25c	53$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.75	236	49.2%116 W · 120 L	+28.6wins	+0.12per pick	37cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Suns	25c	53$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.75	166	40.4%67 W · 99 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Suns	25c	53$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.75	212	42%89 W · 123 L	+12.8wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Suns	25c	53$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.75	234	41.5%97 W · 137 L	+13.6wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Suns	25c	53$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.75	455	44.8%204 W · 251 L	+21.8wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Suns	38c	50$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	620	51.1%317 W · 303 L	+14.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Suns	25c	50$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.5	144	49.3%71 W · 73 L	+12.7wins	+0.09per pick	40cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Thunder	62c	48.86$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.29	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed Thunder	55c	46.88$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.78	83	33.7%28 W · 55 L	-12.7wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-30%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3a0e…b0babacked Suns	42c	45.96$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.66	148	44.6%66 W · 82 L	-7.1wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Suns	43c	45.39$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.87	327	47.4%155 W · 172 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f74…4adabacked Thunder	56c	34.77$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.47	108	50.9%55 W · 53 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Suns	38c	33.96$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.06	389	47.6%185 W · 204 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Suns	78c	25.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Thunder	60c	24.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.91	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Suns	47c	21.28$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.28	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event