TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sunsof Thunder, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,303

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,991 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4408…1b6abacked Suns45c8,261$3,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,543.397653.9%41 W · 35 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Thunder54c8,258$4,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.4221350.7%108 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed Suns47c4,394$2,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,328.819440.4%38 W · 56 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder50c2,465$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.394,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Suns46c2,026$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.1949244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Suns52c1,859$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.214,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Thunder49c1,287$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.861,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Suns49c1,091$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.49,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe802…e465backed Thunder53c1,020$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.815945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Thunder52c1,012$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.723,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Thunder54c999.83$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.911,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Suns51c936$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.6416743.7%73 W · 94 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc5b…5443backed Thunder48c807.33$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.5212542.4%53 W · 72 L-11.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa09e…9368backed Suns53c767.34$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.658353%44 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Suns52c749.41$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.721,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Suns49c711.54$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.8971547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder10c615.34$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.288,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Suns50c553.05$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.5237842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Thunder53c504.68$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.671,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Thunder48c504.58$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.218748.1%90 W · 97 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Suns52c464.54$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.5581349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Thunder47c436.41$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.1144345.1%200 W · 243 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder54c396.16$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.926,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Thunder12c395.82$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.092,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Suns46c338.22$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.649855.1%54 W · 44 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4e4…d947backed Thunder10c318.7$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.742123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a9…656dbacked Thunder48c280.95$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.863828.9%11 W · 27 L-7.6wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-41.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Thunder53c277.79$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.231,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Thunder53c277.79$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.2322047.3%104 W · 116 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f61…f488backed Thunder53c275.04$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.779642.7%41 W · 55 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Thunder54c273.05$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.3137647.3%178 W · 198 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Thunder54c272.81$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.3219254.7%105 W · 87 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x835c…8e3bbacked Suns46c262.51$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.766040%24 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Suns49c247.2$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.0719348.2%93 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Thunder49c245.06$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.082,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Suns53c198.29$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.1893543.6%408 W · 527 L-32.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Thunder53c187.61$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.441,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb69…c773backed Suns54c180.91$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.6913148.9%64 W · 67 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Thunder55c176.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.326755.1%147 W · 120 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Thunder50c176.33$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.171,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Suns71c154.81$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.811,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Thunder13c153.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Thunder48c153.07$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4720040%80 W · 120 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ce5…af2ebacked Thunder10c145.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.198134.6%28 W · 53 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Thunder55c132.68$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9815055.3%83 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Thunder47c126.14$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2954443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Suns46c108.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.769345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e8f…4374backed Thunder48c100.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4420146.8%94 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Suns47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5358754.7%321 W · 266 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Suns49c96.1$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0163746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Thunder15c94.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2493148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3319…ba79backed Suns46c93.21$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3310456.7%59 W · 45 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Suns49c90.17$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9910447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Thunder54c90.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6211850.8%60 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x382d…b9e9backed Thunder55c89.52$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.23771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+46.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72b2…1c91backed Suns46c89.02$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+39.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked Thunder48c79.44$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1315650.6%79 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c6b…340bbacked Suns46c79.34$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.852958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Suns51c75.71$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.189850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f6…f0d9backed Thunder55c70.76$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.921650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Thunder55c61.92$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0615846.8%74 W · 84 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdbe…e45bbacked Thunder47c61.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.055843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x48aa…2eeebacked Suns46c57.4$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319441.5%39 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Suns54c57.37$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3920558.5%120 W · 85 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b52…22cbbacked Suns53c57.21$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.893756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Thunder47c55.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.311,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Thunder45c47.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.061,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Thunder53c45.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.353348.4%258 W · 275 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Thunder53c45.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.337853.4%202 W · 176 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Suns49c44.69$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7977549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Suns47c44.63$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6562051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Suns49c43.62$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2527050%135 W · 135 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbced…5808backed Thunder48c42.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4614753.1%78 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Thunder48c42.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4626147.1%123 W · 138 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cf7…cb5bbacked Suns46c42.07$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.721872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+39.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Thunder54c41.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4131953%169 W · 150 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a0e…b0babacked Suns49c39.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1814844.6%66 W · 82 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5367…dfc1backed Suns48c39.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.472065%13 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Thunder53c38.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4438947.6%185 W · 204 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Suns58c37.03$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.712,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Suns55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.361,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f98…ec35backed Suns53c31.16$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6310046%46 W · 54 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a34…56cfbacked Thunder55c28.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.466734.3%23 W · 44 L-9.8wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-34%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Thunder46c27.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.483,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Suns48c25.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2279650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Suns46c24.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3564944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c86…456bbacked Suns53c21.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1718548.1%89 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Thunder54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Thunder53c19.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.535546.5%165 W · 190 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2f…1b25backed Suns54c19.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.132653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17a3…8cb3backed Thunder53c19.06$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.14254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.