NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2e28481d67a091898f2e3febde6be9b5291c9d40e342b75bfac28dc5d58a5ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 48c | 11,030$5,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,735.63 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Under | 4c | 9,424$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.94 | 199 | 37.2%74 W · 125 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6323…9feebacked Under | 52c | 4,327$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250.18 | 144 | 41%59 W · 85 L | -12.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dba…10dabacked Under | 52c | 2,215$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…ff17backed Over | 49c | 1,978$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.97 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…9992backed Under | 52c | 1,279$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.08 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 51c | 1,142$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.36 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 979.06$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.32 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…0d5ebacked Under | 52c | 971.2$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.02 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Under | 15c | 949$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.35 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…9cebbacked Under | 52c | 944.33$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.05 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…bac1backed Under | 52c | 799.37$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.67 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 54c | 731.85$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.2 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 51c | 555.9$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.51 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfa…9743backed Under | 52c | 504$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.08 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 49c | 494.2$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.04 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 455.66$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaa…c8ffbacked Under | 53c | 291.54$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.52 | 216 | 53.7%116 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 47c | 290$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.7 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…656dbacked Over | 48c | 288.59$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.07 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -7.6wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef9…ef4ebacked Over | 49c | 233.45$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed Under | 52c | 188.69$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed Under | 52c | 148.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Under | 52c | 140.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…cd4ebacked Over | 49c | 130.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 188 | 50.5%95 W · 93 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9135…a63ebacked Under | 52c | 97.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 201 | 46.8%94 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfd…f319backed Under | 54c | 87.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 48c | 63.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…7f2ebacked Over | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Under | 52c | 53.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 51c | 52.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 53c | 51.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Under | 53c | 42.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Under | 51c | 29.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 112 | 32.1%36 W · 76 L | -17.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…6d92backed Under | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…803abacked Under | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 52c | 25.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 52c | 22.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Over | 73c | 21.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Under | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. ThunderSuns won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.