Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedf1c05623341d4fc721b403a95b6511836c985948e85c4c4405d276ea4bb2f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,016$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed No | 67c | 1,000$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.48 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 372.39$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.41 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 341$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 42c | 166.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 43c | 156.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.95 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 74c | 134.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 38c | 127.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.62 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 38c | 121.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 56c | 120.76$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 77c | 119.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.28 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked No | 43c | 117.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 41c | 116.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 114$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 36c | 110.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 68c | 94.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…7aecbacked Yes | 52c | 93.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 34c | 79.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 78.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 77.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 76.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 74.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 29c | 60.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…791bbacked Yes | 66c | 58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 51c | 54.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 68c | 51.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed No | 23c | 45.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 74c | 41.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 51c | 39.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 36.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a7…19a3backed Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +185.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 39c | 36.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 55c | 36.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…aa32backed No | 42c | 35.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed No | 36c | 35.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…bad9backed No | 59c | 33.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 71cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 33.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…c8fbbacked Yes | 39c | 32.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 65c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 47c | 29.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…36b9backed Yes | 69c | 29.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…462ebacked No | 54c | 27.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 44c | 25.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc09c…682ebacked Yes | 54c | 24.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 57c | 23.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 57c | 20.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…b0aebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.