Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9676753f1efff67d4673c2a35f4f3d11ad7b0ed49bf8c4219ccc1b5acf73947
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 325.07$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 41c | 244.2$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 193.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 58c | 145.04$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6173…31d4backed No | 78c | 128.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 30c | 113.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 40c | 111$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 37c | 86.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 85.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 81.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…7b51backed No | 65c | 80.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…c876backed Yes | 39c | 76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 77c | 72.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 64c | 71.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 69.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 67c | 63.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 79c | 59.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 60c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…1814backed No | 63c | 49.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc355…1297backed Yes | 40c | 49.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…aaeabacked Yes | 43c | 46.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 42.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 61c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 61c | 41.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 35c | 39.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 65c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 40c | 38.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 66c | 37.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…c8fbbacked Yes | 42c | 34.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 34c | 30.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 30.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…556dbacked Yes | 40c | 28.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 75c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 74c | 25.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 62c | 24.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 22.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 20.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e1…4e79backed No | 74c | 20.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 64c | 18.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…1decbacked No | 60c | 18.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 71c | 17.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 16.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 64c | 16.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 64c | 16.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 15.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…6087backed No | 77c | 14.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.