TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Hawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Cavaliers, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,367,879
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,537,505

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,367,879 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 826 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Hawks76c129,337$98,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,764.0136549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Cavaliers24c100,000$24,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,999.9754539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f28…266ebacked Hawks77c74,290$56,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,336.433145.2%14 W · 17 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-25.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Cavaliers23c59,076$13,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,587.4372648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Cavaliers24c43,094$10,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,297.0710930.3%33 W · 76 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b52…568ebacked Hawks76c29,969$22,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,192.494963.3%31 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Hawks72c27,114$19,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,650.5937355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96dd…17febacked Hawks73c22,871$16,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,075.368661.6%53 W · 33 L+8.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers24c21,083$5,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,077.244,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf984…5098backed Cavaliers23c20,909$4,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,768.427337%27 W · 46 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Cavaliers27c20,839$5,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,626.11,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Cavaliers24c20,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.9949244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ccc…f2dabacked Hawks76c20,000$15,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,699.995064%32 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Hawks75c19,853$14,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,913.9787750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Cavaliers24c18,690$4,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,485.491,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Hawks77c18,639$14,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,287.018763.2%55 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Cavaliers30c18,553$5,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,566.232540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Cavaliers24c18,352$4,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,386.6656646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2904…ec3fbacked Cavaliers9c17,274$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.6740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Hawks80c17,042$13,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,410.9719388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Cavaliers25c15,850$3,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,962.4528554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6421backed Cavaliers24c15,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6001020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6584…88c0backed Cavaliers22c13,427$2,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,972.146240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0d…90c0backed Cavaliers26c12,893$3,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,323.198834.1%30 W · 58 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Cavaliers24c12,289$2,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,932.9661336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ec…5696backed Hawks78c12,000$9,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6803234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-39.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Hawks67c10,714$7,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,519.421350.7%108 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Hawks75c10,400$7,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,627.1915140.4%61 W · 90 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4440…959abacked Hawks77c10,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3007035.7%25 W · 45 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Hawks69c9,718$6,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0593,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Cavaliers19c9,214$1,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.6611335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x12b9…6312backed Cavaliers45c9,170$4,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,166.457236.1%26 W · 46 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Hawks76c8,429$6,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,023.079350.5%47 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8516…93a0backed Cavaliers29c8,253$2,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,393.58035%28 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Cavaliers25c8,154$2,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,035.5165939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Cavaliers24c8,152$1,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,956.5214243%61 W · 81 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Cavaliers10c7,731$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.711440.4%46 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Hawks74c7,256$5,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.0720744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Cavaliers27c7,043$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.828345.8%38 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc03…1548backed Cavaliers25c7,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.98427.1%3 W · 39 L-8.1wins-0.19per pick26cpaid-86.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Cavaliers7c6,920$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.051417.8%11 W · 130 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Cavaliers24c6,901$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.322,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Cavaliers24c6,714$1,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,628.8962347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Hawks75c6,566$4,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,641.539060%54 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Cavaliers25c6,502$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620.5843438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Cavaliers26c6,342$1,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,648.42,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Cavaliers25c6,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.9786641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Cavaliers24c6,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.9438434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26eb…22d0backed Cavaliers24c5,012$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.9227735%97 W · 180 L-30.7wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Cavaliers25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25058740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Cavaliers24c5,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.9912745.7%58 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48d…5182backed Cavaliers25c4,966$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.54671.7%33 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cavaliers14c4,650$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.52,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Cavaliers16c4,476$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.8817042.4%72 W · 98 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Cavaliers21c4,409$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.886841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaccd…7402backed Hawks76c4,332$3,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.77944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Hawks76c4,170$3,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.8227546.2%127 W · 148 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d3…c5afbacked Cavaliers24c4,158$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.925347.2%25 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x41c7…c8fbbacked Cavaliers24c4,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick42cpaid-61.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Cavaliers24c4,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9601,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Cavaliers25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00023742.6%101 W · 136 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc025…c169backed Cavaliers23c3,910$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.52254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Hawks76c3,881$2,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.3231453.5%168 W · 146 L+0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers22c3,635$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.478,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5b…8e29backed Hawks76c3,500$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.673063.3%19 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Cavaliers23c3,410$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.221,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Cavaliers1c3,200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.817211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Cavaliers24c3,181$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.5234953%185 W · 164 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Hawks75c3,029$2,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.8616959.8%101 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Cavaliers27c3,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.9947043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed Hawks75c2,754$2,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.3922857.5%131 W · 97 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e59…307dbacked Hawks75c2,627$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.678859.1%52 W · 36 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Cavaliers24c2,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60056843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x033a…fc42backed Cavaliers24c2,338$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.085728.1%16 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97b1…1f26backed Cavaliers25c2,280$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.06329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-72.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Cavaliers24c2,275$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.893,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Hawks76c2,269$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.6784443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cavaliers13c2,186$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.115,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Cavaliers25c2,108$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.9412257.4%70 W · 52 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Hawks76c2,100$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50410158.4%59 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Cavaliers24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48031046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff67…a1c9backed Cavaliers29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5801315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+126.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa1…70c5backed Cavaliers8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1603540%14 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hawks77c1,975$1,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.261,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Hawks76c1,956$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.7327163.5%172 W · 99 L+0.9wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf21…7e3dbacked Cavaliers28c1,859$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.395952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc9e5…6199backed Hawks76c1,798$1,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.492236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Cavaliers26c1,773$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.061,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Cavaliers23c1,711$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.6990650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b0…fc67backed Cavaliers24c1,632$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.696341.3%26 W · 37 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Hawks62c1,608$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.1319957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Cavaliers26c1,600$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41268944%303 W · 386 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Cavaliers25c1,600$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick31cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Cavaliers42c1,589$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.3260549.8%301 W · 304 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25e2…db79backed Hawks75c1,576$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3943375.8%25 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66ec…8c18backed Cavaliers19c1,575$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.775813.8%8 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7618…48b4backed Hawks74c1,515$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8be2…494abacked Hawks76c1,439$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.482673.1%19 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3450…e26cbacked Hawks75c1,400$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3501172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22c4…1314backed Hawks76c1,398$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.