NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25dca762ffb4e5b9914baa5f5e2d7d76c8dfd4528f5ecdb942660ec78e3ca31d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 34c | 2,128$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.69 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 69c | 1,374$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.63 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 8c | 1,320$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 1,155$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 53c | 1,129$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.45 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 867.74$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.14 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Over | 13c | 660.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Over | 47c | 650.68$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.82 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Under | 55c | 530.73$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.83 | 170 | 47.6%81 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1a…4ca6backed Over | 48c | 290.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab9…6791backed Under | 53c | 281.82$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…702dbacked Over | 24c | 277.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 49c | 238.46$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 228.34$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.17 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 54c | 218.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.73 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 15c | 216.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 188$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 51c | 184.16$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.92 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Over | 46c | 179.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 26c | 171.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…6397backed Under | 79c | 108.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 56c | 106.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 11c | 102.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Under | 73c | 98.39$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 16c | 96.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 313 | 45%141 W · 172 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 49c | 79.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 52c | 77.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Over | 51c | 73.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 52c | 72.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 52c | 69.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 52c | 69.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 313 | 54.3%170 W · 143 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 49c | 55.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 54.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 48c | 51.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f05…3dfcbacked Under | 53c | 48.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…b82abacked Over | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 50c | 47.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Over | 47c | 41.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…16e6backed Under | 55c | 38.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Under | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 30c | 34.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…3170backed Over | 48c | 32.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 30.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 54c | 28.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…7878backed Under | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 48c | 25.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…30cfbacked Under | 52c | 24.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Under | 52c | 24.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…7da8backed Under | 52c | 24.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Over | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5907…409abacked Under | 52c | 21.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked Over | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…824abacked Under | 55c | 19.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 59c | 19.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 60c | 18.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 592 | 50.2%297 W · 295 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 60c | 18.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked Under | 77c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5this page
- CJ McCollum: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Cavaliers vs. HawksHawks won
- Cavaliers vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Cavaliers vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 218.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 219.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 21.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-7.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.