TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,947
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,947 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x228b…af4cbacked Under45c593.76$267 inWon+$326.661,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over56c398.13$222 inLost-$221.8134255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over43c134$58 inLost-$58.072,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Over51c118.07$60 inLost-$60.4731345%141 W · 172 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Over56c92.55$52 inLost-$52.1827553.5%147 W · 128 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6924…1455backed Under49c88.66$43 inWon+$45.625259.6%31 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under57c86.7$49 inWon+$37.2845445.2%205 W · 249 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over16c73.56$12 inLost-$11.853,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over42c68.44$29 inLost-$29.047572%54 W · 21 L+11.7wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+22%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over33c60.47$20 inLost-$19.952,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Under67c55$37 inWon+$18.1517553.7%94 W · 81 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Under78c37.9$30 inWon+$8.2956050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfe7…4dbfbacked Under66c34.45$23 inWon+$11.812161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf3b…0230backed Under75c19.7$15 inWon+$4.924067.5%27 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.