TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 222.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,910
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,073

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,910 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x228b…af4cbacked Under41c1,826$745 inLost-$744.71,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under51c835.84$425 inLost-$425.43,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over46c491.54$226 inWon+$265.432,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Over46c358.24$166 inWon+$192.3131345%141 W · 172 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x981c…306fbacked Over69c338.51$232 inWon+$106.113661.1%22 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb628…fd2bbacked Over69c284.74$196 inWon+$88.4611873.7%87 W · 31 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over28c282.26$79 inWon+$203.2252230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over47c269.01$127 inWon+$142.332,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under48c230$110 inLost-$110.42,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Over29c191.48$56 inWon+$135.954153.7%22 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f47…6397backed Over66c184.65$122 inWon+$62.787248.6%35 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over47c174.26$82 inWon+$91.9934255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x45a8…82e1backed Under65c151.05$98 inLost-$97.8910257.8%59 W · 43 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under46c72$33 inLost-$33.121,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Over52c54.38$28 inWon+$26.2327553.5%147 W · 128 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5258…534ebacked Over64c50$32 inWon+$181060%6 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64d6…aedbbacked Under54c40.85$22 inLost-$22.1910657.5%61 W · 45 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Over36c38$14 inWon+$24.4237753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Over44c24.82$11 inWon+$13.8989850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9209…b4d5backed Over67c21.59$14 inWon+$7.1327646.7%129 W · 147 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac1…a156backed Over51c20.17$10 inWon+$9.886070%42 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.