TailMyPicks

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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: BBL Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Eternal Fireof BBL Esports, Eternal Fire
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$156,520
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$164,686

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,520 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbedb…3b26backed BBL Esports68c17,821$12,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,183.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd604…ee57backed Eternal Fire56c10,461$5,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,611.89771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+63.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8247…ee42backed BBL Esports72c7,214$5,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,158.872352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid+11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Eternal Fire39c5,493$2,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,340.115850%79 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed BBL Esports74c4,743$3,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,506.4433346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked BBL Esports69c4,530$3,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,125.728955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BBL Esports38c4,070$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.5968458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked BBL Esports37c3,826$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.545033.8%152 W · 298 L-35.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked BBL Esports37c3,239$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.1465559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked BBL Esports44c3,190$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.3794361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed BBL Esports37c2,855$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.8430147.2%142 W · 159 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Eternal Fire28c2,820$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.9741734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed BBL Esports64c2,678$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.9941537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Eternal Fire65c2,500$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87532047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Eternal Fire29c2,300$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,63328548.4%138 W · 147 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed BBL Esports42c2,125$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89753159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Eternal Fire28c2,020$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,454.43129%9 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Eternal Fire29c2,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,42033348.3%161 W · 172 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed Eternal Fire29c2,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4205658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Eternal Fire61c2,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.9816952.1%88 W · 81 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BBL Esports41c1,995$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.9293148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fa3…172fbacked Eternal Fire28c1,967$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.32552%13 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Eternal Fire60c1,808$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.3116442.1%69 W · 95 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed BBL Esports39c1,400$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.1932462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5887…994ebacked Eternal Fire59c1,302$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5319346.2%43 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed BBL Esports46c1,269$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.9723447%110 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Eternal Fire66c1,122$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.823644.5%105 W · 131 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e8…4f4bbacked Eternal Fire44c1,037$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.958950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed BBL Esports41c1,020$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.4970251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec4c…f5bdbacked Eternal Fire30c1,000$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7052100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+139.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea9e…4925backed Eternal Fire29c1,000$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7104100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+155.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed BBL Esports41c961.81$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe01f…ab4abacked Eternal Fire43c920.2$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.7825444.9%114 W · 140 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7573…8ceabacked Eternal Fire29c805.89$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+65.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Eternal Fire29c801.51$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.3515942.1%67 W · 92 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Eternal Fire28c776.99$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.4355152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked BBL Esports46c699.99$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32214152.5%74 W · 67 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed BBL Esports71c697.65$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.3311255.4%62 W · 50 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fdd…2055backed Eternal Fire29c588.9$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+72.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Eternal Fire64c585.81$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.8921055.2%116 W · 94 L+10.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Eternal Fire63c558.96$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.5142540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Eternal Fire52c553.97$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.291,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked BBL Esports72c501.44$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.244531.1%14 W · 31 L-9.8wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-45.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Eternal Fire28c501$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.72540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Eternal Fire29c500$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3552657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Eternal Fire28c500$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed Eternal Fire26c500$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37022047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Eternal Fire28c500$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36060022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Eternal Fire55c454.41$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20521048.1%101 W · 109 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Eternal Fire27c449.79$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.354450%22 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d91…c930backed BBL Esports46c422.23$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.521257.1%121 W · 91 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd500…4568backed BBL Esports70c396.87$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.811266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+71.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed BBL Esports68c391.12$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.9624946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8f9…fee2backed BBL Esports42c388.55$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9628247.5%134 W · 148 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Eternal Fire30c375.01$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.8725556.1%143 W · 112 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked BBL Esports24c370.87$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.191,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed BBL Esports46c337.54$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6721558.1%125 W · 90 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb6d…942cbacked Eternal Fire52c329.21$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.58746%40 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Eternal Fire60c262.43$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.1969722.8%159 W · 538 L-94.4wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed BBL Esports34c212.22$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1541835.6%149 W · 269 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked BBL Esports55c209.73$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.7126758.8%157 W · 110 L+18.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked BBL Esports72c204.83$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.4818653.8%100 W · 86 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed BBL Esports47c202.34$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9323644.9%106 W · 130 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…b805backed Eternal Fire53c201.95$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.053345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed BBL Esports36c199.9$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0834739.8%138 W · 209 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Eternal Fire29c192.9$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.961,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Eternal Fire46c180.26$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.11,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed Eternal Fire28c175.19$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1418049.4%89 W · 91 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1872…bcabbacked Eternal Fire58c168.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.591637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed BBL Esports24c159.2$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3526730.7%82 W · 185 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x63c4…26f2backed Eternal Fire29c155.49$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.42030%6 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed BBL Esports72c150.12$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0828541.1%117 W · 168 L-26.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x0825…5e07backed BBL Esports72c136.56$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.325054%27 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Eternal Fire35c131.31$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7832152.6%169 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed Eternal Fire29c131.16$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.138134.6%28 W · 53 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked BBL Esports37c123.73$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.684533.3%15 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0caa…b2bdbacked Eternal Fire29c118.15$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.614959.7%89 W · 60 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Eternal Fire29c112.93$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.188744.8%39 W · 48 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Eternal Fire29c109.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0954439.9%217 W · 327 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed BBL Esports58c109.27$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.311526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed BBL Esports69c108.49$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.341741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed BBL Esports55c108$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.454751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c55…7ef8backed BBL Esports70c103.33$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.33560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+13.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed BBL Esports47c103$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4142840%171 W · 257 L-22.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x65b7…3798backed Eternal Fire28c99.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9918952.4%99 W · 90 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c8…97b4backed BBL Esports72c98.32$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.797762.3%48 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed BBL Esports43c92.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9657517.7%102 W · 473 L-71.7wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x155b…d7babacked Eternal Fire50c91.7$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0915754.1%85 W · 72 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed BBL Esports64c88.93$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1763652.7%335 W · 301 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x87d3…55fcbacked BBL Esports40c88.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fc0…8f18backed Eternal Fire29c86.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.885834.5%20 W · 38 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1506…4690backed BBL Esports72c81.93$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.992263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed BBL Esports42c81.03$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0314254.9%78 W · 64 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x675c…4341backed BBL Esports36c80.13$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.852147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed BBL Esports27c76.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2666438.1%253 W · 411 L-31.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Eternal Fire38c73.31$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.431,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe430…b09fbacked BBL Esports68c72.12$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.04966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+54.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Eternal Fire54c69.33$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8940254.7%220 W · 182 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e7…a447backed BBL Esports72c68.28$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.162060%12 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41c7…c8fbbacked Eternal Fire28c66.04$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.55742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.