Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07e83d3e6ea62cb44f3b7b4c83d48ddcd5a9b8e90a7b217c794089082a96a4b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 69c | 407.58$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.92 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 10c | 188.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 48c | 187.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.57 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 27c | 185.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.92 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 62c | 168.66$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 151.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 43c | 149.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.15 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 146.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 133$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 102.54$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 100.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 77c | 99.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 43c | 97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 93.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 28c | 90.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.71 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 28c | 85.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 78.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 77.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 68.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 73c | 68.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9d…02f8backed Yes | 25c | 66.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 60.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 37c | 57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 29c | 55.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 53.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 52.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…7889backed Yes | 27c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 32c | 44.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 26c | 42.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 34c | 42.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 40.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602c…5f57backed No | 65c | 40.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 38.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43df…8d83backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 58c | 38.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 38.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 68c | 34.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 47c | 32.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…c8fbbacked Yes | 42c | 27.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 68c | 26.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 25.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 25.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 79c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 22.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 54c | 22.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed No | 56c | 21.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 72c | 18.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 17.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 72c | 14.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 75c | 13.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.