NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04564b7d917c809846ca046e3864fa0de47d4246f4793bad88d9371b6066b350
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clippersof Timberwolves, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,312,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,318,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,312,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82a1…e03abacked Clippers | 52c | 1,186,369$621,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564,568.66 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Timberwolves | 48c | 690,805$328,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328,678.56 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Timberwolves | 47c | 164,715$77,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77,874.6 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 79,130$37,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,982.4 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Timberwolves | 48c | 66,896$32,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,040.89 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Timberwolves | 48c | 63,716$30,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,366.42 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Timberwolves | 48c | 35,906$17,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,234.35 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 22,160$10,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,710.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 47c | 18,062$8,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,579.2 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…16eabacked Timberwolves | 47c | 16,934$7,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,958.89 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa25…05e8backed Timberwolves | 50c | 16,090$8,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,083.89 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Clippers | 50c | 14,041$7,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,001.24 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 9,780$4,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,792.2 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Timberwolves | 50c | 8,980$4,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,463.4 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…6293backed Clippers | 53c | 6,682$3,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,140.54 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 50c | 6,040$3,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,019.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Timberwolves | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0585…5fa1backed Timberwolves | 49c | 4,739$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Clippers | 52c | 4,200$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 46c | 3,199$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.93 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Clippers | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 48c | 2,193$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.3 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…e9adbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…16f9backed Timberwolves | 48c | 1,458$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…7a42backed Timberwolves | 48c | 1,428$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.27 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.76 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Timberwolves | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Timberwolves | 50c | 718.1$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.34 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…e3d9backed Timberwolves | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…9d9ebacked Clippers | 52c | 502.77$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.53 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Timberwolves | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 496.11$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Clippers | 50c | 449.6$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.8 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Timberwolves | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 217 | 53%115 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…6bb9backed Timberwolves | 50c | 399.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Timberwolves | 50c | 356.71$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.36 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Timberwolves | 49c | 310$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Timberwolves | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 279$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.84 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2f38backed Timberwolves | 48c | 230.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Timberwolves | 52c | 220$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…79f9backed Clippers | 55c | 210.5$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.53 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Clippers | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Timberwolves | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f20…87c9backed Timberwolves | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Clippers | 52c | 140.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f2…1415backed Timberwolves | 42c | 130$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 128.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Timberwolves | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Timberwolves | 48c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Timberwolves | 51c | 108$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Clippers | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66d…bd4cbacked Clippers | 52c | 77.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…c457backed Timberwolves | 49c | 76.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Timberwolves | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Timberwolves | 49c | 68.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff4…53cdbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 49.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Clippers | 52c | 48.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2659…d77ebacked Clippers | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0e…b74abacked Timberwolves | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed Timberwolves | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Timberwolves | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…c8fbbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Timberwolves | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…da70backed Timberwolves | 49c | 26.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8657…5741backed Clippers | 78c | 25.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 252 | 43.7%110 W · 142 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…f8e1backed Timberwolves | 48c | 24.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Timberwolves | 52c | 24.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 49c | 21.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Timberwolves | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Timberwolves | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)this page
- Clippers vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Clippers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.