NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa29ba094d0f6d1265fe6b8bdfdbbdd62f07c902bba931a720f33a622bf3aaa58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clippersof Timberwolves, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $459,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $454,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $459,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Clippers | 54c | 343,488$185,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158,159.84 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Timberwolves | 46c | 214,200$98,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98,930 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 89,227$41,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,044.65 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 37,855$17,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,084.97 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Timberwolves | 46c | 18,299$8,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,414.1 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 52c | 13,795$7,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,129.05 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Clippers | 56c | 13,699$7,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,027.48 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 38c | 10,357$3,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,959.37 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Timberwolves | 46c | 10,110$4,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,650.6 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ff…1df7backed Clippers | 48c | 9,380$4,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,877.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…ef6fbacked Clippers | 48c | 8,735$4,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,542.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…8a0bbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 7,000$3,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,640 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd234…90b0backed Clippers | 48c | 7,000$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,640 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Timberwolves | 49c | 5,102$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 4,890$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.74 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Timberwolves | 54c | 3,680$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…f143backed Timberwolves | 54c | 3,621$1,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 46c | 2,759$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.5 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Timberwolves | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Clippers | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Timberwolves | 45c | 829$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.05 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Timberwolves | 38c | 694.03$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.84 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves | 47c | 638$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Clippers | 53c | 594.34$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.34 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 594.28$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Clippers | 45c | 509.14$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.91 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Clippers | 55c | 490.91$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.91 | 253 | 47%119 W · 134 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers | 53c | 379.62$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.43 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Clippers | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Timberwolves | 45c | 280$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Timberwolves | 54c | 236.6$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.76 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Timberwolves | 54c | 217$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 210$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Timberwolves | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Timberwolves | 47c | 202.2$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.03 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Clippers | 46c | 157.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Clippers | 53c | 113.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 40c | 108.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Timberwolves | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Clippers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Timberwolves | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a5…1633backed Timberwolves | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…d2ecbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Clippers | 46c | 92.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Timberwolves | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Timberwolves | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Timberwolves | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Clippers | 45c | 80.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Clippers | 52c | 76.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Clippers | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Clippers | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Clippers | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Clippers | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Clippers | 46c | 48.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9f…c2a6backed Timberwolves | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Clippers | 49c | 41.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Timberwolves | 42c | 37.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…b93bbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…f0cbbacked Timberwolves | 56c | 35.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Clippers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 146 | 50.7%74 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Timberwolves | 53c | 31.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Timberwolves | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3002…7d71backed Timberwolves | 53c | 27.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f68…5e99backed Timberwolves | 54c | 26.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 60cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…06c2backed Timberwolves | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)this page
- Clippers vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Clippers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.