South American Leagues · resolved market
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c4c32b10b6281c9909964842713a0f2a9e6c575bc0f00d2b64a660142363a47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 32c | 7,865$2,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,511.66 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 68c | 2,272$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.01 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 68c | 1,998$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.36 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 74c | 1,622$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.49 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 16c | 805.73$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 68c | 754.16$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.33 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…8e52backed Under | 71c | 690.62$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.28 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 68c | 642.75$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.68 | 1,670 | 51.8%865 W · 805 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…b5b2backed Over | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 11c | 314.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 11c | 299.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 79c | 297.45$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…698cbacked Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 68c | 183$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 68c | 182.13$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 29c | 160$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 30c | 138.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 68c | 125.42$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 68c | 119$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked Over | 12c | 118.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 70c | 98.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 75c | 91.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ca…41ddbacked Under | 70c | 91.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 30c | 81.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 21c | 68.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 19cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 69c | 67.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…1ef8backed Over | 31c | 46.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 31c | 43.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,447 | 45.9%664 W · 783 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 70c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae74…e429backed Under | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e42…844cbacked Under | 70c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Under | 70c | 17.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…348ebacked Under | 70c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 2.5this page
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5)CA Vélez Sarsfield won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-1.5)CA San Lorenzo de Almagro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.