South American Leagues · resolved market
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aeadd4c73b56ec3ecec1528fc35c3081d9eee6dd0a0c3c550ede1b85778e3f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 3,886$2,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.02 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…b5b2backed Over | 23c | 2,100$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.99 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Over | 48c | 1,459$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b85…a3e9backed Under | 47c | 1,256$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 41c | 785.56$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.48 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52aa…e5dabacked Over | 39c | 644.25$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…60aabacked Over | 53c | 558.58$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 21c | 435.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Over | 59c | 413.31$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.85 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 35c | 392.64$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.42 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 336.75$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.9 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…14edbacked Over | 59c | 330.64$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.08 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 15c | 313.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 32c | 298.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 17c | 281.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 59c | 266.8$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.41 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 52c | 249.66$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.85 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 72c | 179.65$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 73c | 145.6$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…f3c8backed Over | 27c | 141.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 47c | 123.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 65c | 116.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 108.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b2…dcc5backed Over | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…698cbacked Over | 38c | 96.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 35c | 82.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 77.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…dbfdbacked Over | 53c | 75.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 58c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked Over | 59c | 74.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.39per pick | 54cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 69c | 70.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 69c | 69.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Under | 69c | 67.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 46c | 63.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 64c | 53.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 66c | 53.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 42c | 52.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 38c | 38.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 19cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 33.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Over | 59c | 32.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 29.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 58c | 23.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 72c | 21.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 67c | 16.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 1.5this page
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5)CA Vélez Sarsfield won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-1.5)CA San Lorenzo de Almagro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.