South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Unión vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa38e2e45471f845023728bffea0b2458ccbdecb8c012df09f3244e6467863f41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbed3…2811backed Under | 66c | 6,016$3,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,942.81 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 4,749$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,993.13 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 66c | 2,985$1,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958.74 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Over | 27c | 1,663$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.64 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc64c…e605backed Over | 40c | 1,205$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 487.23$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.64 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 43c | 359.69$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.15 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…609fbacked Under | 6c | 339.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434e…c06abacked Under | 67c | 311.8$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed Under | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…b5b2backed Over | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed Over | 37c | 299.97$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 9c | 299.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.72 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 8c | 291.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.53 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 188.79$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.27 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 9c | 162.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 13c | 139.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.95 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Over | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 65c | 84.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 67c | 78.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…8b48backed Under | 76c | 64.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a65…3340backed Over | 33c | 58.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 72c | 52.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e30…02a0backed Under | 79c | 51.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 62c | 50.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 66c | 45.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…45ebbacked Over | 34c | 43.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 39c | 39.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e95…f5bfbacked Under | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Over | 39c | 29.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 37c | 28.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 66c | 24.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 72c | 24.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 62c | 23.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 65c | 22.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 66c | 22.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c73…dd8fbacked Under | 67c | 19.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Unión vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 4.5this page
- CA Unión vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Unión vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CA Newell's Old Boys (-1.5)CA Unión won
- Spread: CA Newell's Old Boys (-2.5)CA Unión won
- Spread: CA Unión (-1.5)CA Newell's Old Boys won
- Spread: CA Unión (-2.5)CA Newell's Old Boys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.