South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Unión vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2db8aa1fe85ba98e4ae321084d3566f2feece43d8186d2fb1c73f20ab4898b33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 73c | 2,032$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.38 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 1,745$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.75 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed Over | 6c | 900$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +319.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 52c | 816.48$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.56 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 58c | 705.89$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.42 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Over | 42c | 665.01$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.7 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 41c | 630.31$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.11 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 59c | 585.24$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.29 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…3fcbbacked Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 58c | 336.73$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.32 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 59c | 302.27$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.49 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 35c | 118.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Under | 42c | 111.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…3670backed Over | 42c | 103.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 98.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 75c | 91.44$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 65c | 84.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 157 | 68.2%107 W · 50 L | +21.8wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 76c | 81.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 13c | 80.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 41c | 61.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 43c | 56.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 42c | 49.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…1ef8backed Over | 41c | 35.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 71c | 33.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 42c | 32.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 67c | 29.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Over | 43c | 23.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Over | 67c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Unión vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Unión vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Unión vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 3.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CA Newell's Old Boys (-1.5)CA Unión won
- Spread: CA Newell's Old Boys (-2.5)CA Unión won
- Spread: CA Unión (-1.5)CA Newell's Old Boys won
- Spread: CA Unión (-2.5)CA Newell's Old Boys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.