South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Independiente end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda3d1903f92e817b7e2d75333864b09ed5f1189b1856c83b608ffba268d0c1f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e2…ce3cbacked Yes | 40c | 21,083$8,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,387.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 5,468$4,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.87 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…b5b2backed Yes | 24c | 4,200$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.96 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed No | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 248 | 55.2%137 W · 111 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked No | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed No | 63c | 2,056$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.58 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed No | 60c | 1,750$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 61c | 1,386$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.57 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Yes | 24c | 802.28$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.55 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 60c | 650$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 60c | 650$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f9…9d91backed Yes | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed No | 76c | 473.09$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.54 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 60c | 450$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 434.72$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.67 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 213 | 58.7%125 W · 88 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 24c | 375$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed No | 60c | 292$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 203 | 60.6%123 W · 80 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 61c | 240$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 61c | 234.5$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 20c | 207$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 61c | 204$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 61c | 204$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 61c | 203$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 24c | 182.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Yes | 39c | 181.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 39c | 180$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 242 | 57%138 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 148.05$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed No | 63c | 119.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 153 | 59.5%91 W · 62 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 76c | 95.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569d…6b18backed No | 78c | 89.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 72c | 86.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 175 | 60.6%106 W · 69 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 35c | 51.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 62c | 49.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 68c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 77c | 35.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…311fbacked Yes | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 74c | 27.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked No | 77c | 26.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 192 | 64.1%123 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 80c | 20.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…ba99backed No | 76c | 15.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed No | 80c | 13.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Independiente end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Independiente win on 2026-03-07?Yes won
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-03-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.