TailMyPicks
Market

South American Leagues · resolved market

Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-05-12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$196,303
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$197,132

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,303 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd3c0…764bbacked Yes0c92,683$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ee…0bd0backed Yes51c31,153$15,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,888.013354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Yes50c15,751$7,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,875.582035%7 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-37.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1ef5…dc05backed No49c14,742$7,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,466.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No69c11,377$7,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,576.018,11248.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L+27.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x610b…b5b2backed Yes28c7,999$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.774339.5%17 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed No49c7,602$3,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,876.776357.1%36 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No60c4,226$2,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,683.355,76245.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L+94.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed No50c3,200$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60024855.2%137 W · 111 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed No50c2,800$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41416558.2%96 W · 69 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No49c2,513$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.791,94551.3%998 W · 947 L+40.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked No50c2,400$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20013059.2%77 W · 53 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93c8…adffbacked Yes0c2,347$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.59616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No74c1,497$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.292,38851.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L-9.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed No50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60024053.8%129 W · 111 L-0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes34c1,192$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006827.9%19 W · 49 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed No50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50019559.5%116 W · 79 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked No49c918.36$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.3627549.1%135 W · 140 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed No50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40028851.7%149 W · 139 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed No50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40023056.5%130 W · 100 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No59c748.12$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.762,51939%982 W · 1,537 L-32.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dbe…9013backed Yes37c700$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25918543.2%80 W · 105 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed No49c699.75$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.872347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No49c646.95$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.93,40751.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked No49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.2417049.4%84 W · 86 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30024956.6%141 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed No50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30018358.5%107 W · 76 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed No52c570.09$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.81,07047.4%507 W · 563 L-46.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed No49c537.82$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.2910467.3%70 W · 34 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Yes50c531.76$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.88850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed No50c520$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26016559.4%98 W · 67 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No50c520$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26015857.6%91 W · 67 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No68c450.95$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.261,36244.9%611 W · 751 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Yes51c450$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.381,28253.7%689 W · 593 L+5.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Yes51c410$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.121349.8%106 W · 107 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Yes51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2042948.3%14 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+30.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes25c397.2$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9914335.7%51 W · 92 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x604d…4608backed Yes51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed No49c356$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.562,33551.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L+2.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No49c355.69$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.011,42851.8%740 W · 688 L+22.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf58…1517backed Yes52c346.15$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59b4…73e0backed Yes46c339.13$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1563948.7%19 W · 20 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+32.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Yes52c324.22$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.493253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+26.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9e7…4697backed Yes31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed No50c320$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16021358.7%125 W · 88 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked No50c312$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15621657.9%125 W · 91 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked No50c312$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15620360.6%123 W · 80 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d93…b34dbacked Yes40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1208452.4%44 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6672…9ea3backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes51c250$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.451,35549.7%674 W · 681 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes51c250$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.561,23153.9%663 W · 568 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes51c249.74$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.31,65550.6%838 W · 817 L-4.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed No76c243.3$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3525866.3%171 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2a3…3688backed Yes52c210$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed No49c205$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.553836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-28.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10022058.6%129 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10015560%93 W · 62 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed No62c189.41$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5913248.5%64 W · 68 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7c…a7dbbacked Yes38c177.66$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x034e…f79dbacked Yes15c161.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.061010%1 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-73.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ed5…2aa3backed Yes51c160.23$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+23.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed No50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8024257%138 W · 104 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked No50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8018959.3%112 W · 77 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No49c152.94$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.51,48748.7%724 W · 763 L-17.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf60b…c18ebacked No48c149.59$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0721345.1%96 W · 117 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed No52c148.72$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.712,28734.3%784 W · 1,503 L-30.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d29…65e7backed Yes40c140$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562250%11 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+62.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdb03…9732backed Yes51c127.45$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653135.5%11 W · 20 L-6.0wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-37.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xccc4…77cabacked Yes40c119.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Yes51c115$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.12,61454.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L+25.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b8…19e4backed Yes48c113.97$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick54cpaid-50.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No49c111$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.831,44456.4%815 W · 629 L+51.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed No50c109.08$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.54540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeaa4…3409backed Yes52c107.69$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed No49c105$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.555855.2%32 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe16…60bebacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18c…0350backed Yes48c96.48$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.311428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…f725backed Yes52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Yes52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5077151.4%396 W · 375 L-3.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a4c…ad2fbacked No50c96.15$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.083571.4%25 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked No73c94.25$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4619264.1%123 W · 69 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f9…92e3backed No50c90$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455152.9%27 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa67…d948backed No50c90$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Yes31c82.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.894848.1%456 W · 492 L-18.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92b1…94acbacked Yes35c80$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.5wins-0.26per pick50cpaid-54.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed No50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4013465.7%88 W · 46 L+13.1wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb475…978cbacked Yes37c75$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.752245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a7c…f28bbacked Yes52c73.08$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0633…cfdebacked No74c65.45$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.024969.4%34 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Yes51c64.43$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8650%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ced…9753backed No76c62.1$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.02540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yes30c61.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3971619.7%141 W · 575 L-49.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.670055.7%390 W · 310 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed No50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3017960.3%108 W · 71 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20bf…2be9backed Yes51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2161…c54cbacked Yes51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe743…ce0fbacked Yes51c58.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d50…d283backed No77c58.68$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.575141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd868…7f60backed Yes51c50.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.97814.1%11 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.