TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Morocco (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Haitiof Morocco, Haiti
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,300,595
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,252,816

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,300,595 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 634 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c33…0563backed Haiti69c500,443$346,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153,622.3774752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Morocco29c172,414$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,00019644.9%88 W · 108 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Morocco36c73,398$26,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,497.612,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Haiti63c69,864$44,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,804.1377152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked Haiti60c56,380$33,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,551.9917852.2%93 W · 85 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Morocco29c49,475$14,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,52323942.3%101 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Haiti65c45,292$29,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,852.1117949.2%88 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Morocco33c45,000$14,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,85010056%56 W · 44 L+11.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Morocco33c40,044$13,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,212.328943.8%39 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Morocco18c39,689$7,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,293.63,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed Morocco33c33,824$11,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,161.7614829.7%44 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Haiti78c31,285$24,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,844.054,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Morocco23c30,979$7,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,090.823,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ef…e6ddbacked Morocco34c30,000$10,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,30010840.7%44 W · 64 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Haiti68c26,990$18,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,536.4551032.5%166 W · 344 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1af3…b3b4backed Morocco36c20,700$7,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,45220333.5%68 W · 135 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Haiti62c19,646$12,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,545.6528162.6%176 W · 105 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Morocco40c18,496$7,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,344.141,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x502e…5442backed Morocco32c18,366$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,80016746.7%78 W · 89 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5faf…1183backed Morocco33c15,000$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9509823.5%23 W · 75 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Morocco11c14,951$1,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,652.181,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc41d…74fdbacked Morocco29c14,500$4,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20514139%55 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Morocco39c13,135$5,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,095.32,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Morocco38c12,500$4,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,75021937%81 W · 138 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa18c…d792backed Morocco36c11,038$3,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,973.5424058.8%141 W · 99 L+19.8wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Morocco28c10,218$2,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,860.9426320.5%54 W · 209 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Morocco24c10,104$2,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,375.1765737.4%246 W · 411 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed Morocco39c10,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90038026.6%101 W · 279 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Haiti62c9,662$5,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,671.5670244.6%313 W · 389 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Haiti68c7,500$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.981,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Morocco36c6,841$2,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,483.338,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x910d…0d1cbacked Morocco27c6,660$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.234548.9%22 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Morocco32c6,044$1,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.111,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Haiti64c6,032$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,192.41,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Morocco30c6,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,77024144.8%108 W · 133 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Morocco37c5,946$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,209.8452744.4%234 W · 293 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Morocco13c5,696$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.431,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Morocco31c5,555$1,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.0532029.4%94 W · 226 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe214…c5cebacked Morocco39c5,500$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,13022437.1%83 W · 141 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Haiti61c5,306$3,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.0921849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Morocco39c5,046$1,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.798158%47 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Morocco40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00022229.7%66 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Haiti61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95010059%59 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd34a…78c7backed Morocco32c4,688$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50013721.2%29 W · 108 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Morocco33c4,650$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.521333.3%71 W · 142 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ed…4418backed Morocco40c4,500$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80012428.2%35 W · 89 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Morocco24c4,222$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.4822943.7%100 W · 129 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5425…d3e8backed Haiti62c3,794$2,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.7215127.8%42 W · 109 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed Morocco34c3,792$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.288938.2%34 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Morocco28c3,571$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00037754.4%205 W · 172 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc60f…5b36backed Morocco30c3,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007630.3%23 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Morocco11c3,167$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.092,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f03…ec6abacked Morocco34c3,088$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0507824.4%19 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d06…f79dbacked Morocco33c3,030$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012536.8%46 W · 79 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Morocco35c2,981$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.132,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c8…7cc8backed Haiti62c2,890$1,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.3212241%50 W · 72 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed Morocco36c2,775$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99925844.6%115 W · 143 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x208c…6b98backed Morocco39c2,683$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.449846.9%46 W · 52 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fb2…f24cbacked Morocco39c2,564$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.965832.8%19 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20f…6ccebacked Morocco39c2,550$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00018435.3%65 W · 119 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf055…02b5backed Morocco40c2,475$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026644%117 W · 149 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd044…a6febacked Morocco39c2,400$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9243633.3%12 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bc…e09bbacked Morocco34c2,200$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-55.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Morocco10c2,058$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.7949441.5%205 W · 289 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Morocco37c2,019$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.843,07747%1,447 W · 1,630 L-11.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dbd…8990backed Haiti62c2,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7703740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Morocco35c2,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69014234.5%49 W · 93 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Morocco33c1,907$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.242,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Morocco37c1,892$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70012634.9%44 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefa7…b25bbacked Morocco27c1,831$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4904341.9%18 W · 25 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Morocco36c1,800$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.561,70236.7%625 W · 1,077 L-31.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2629…4166backed Morocco28c1,786$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007540%30 W · 45 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Morocco31c1,759$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.772,63432.9%867 W · 1,767 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Morocco35c1,750$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.653,21347.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe991…48b1backed Morocco40c1,750$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70033641.7%140 W · 196 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e70…14babacked Haiti65c1,708$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.783348.5%16 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Haiti79c1,672$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.162,53346.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L+12.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x75a4…3d29backed Haiti61c1,639$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.347545.3%34 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd08…04fabacked Morocco23c1,635$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.365820.7%12 W · 46 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2613…12bdbacked Morocco33c1,558$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52014035.7%50 W · 90 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21e8…b85ebacked Haiti68c1,471$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.596550.8%33 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Haiti60c1,413$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.3413952.5%73 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14fe…e0fdbacked Morocco32c1,410$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.22147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2053…1eedbacked Morocco33c1,340$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.269324.7%23 W · 70 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…c850backed Morocco38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030140.5%122 W · 179 L+1.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46d4…30fcbacked Morocco39c1,298$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50022032.3%71 W · 149 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Morocco34c1,289$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.231,94542.7%831 W · 1,114 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e2…1327backed Morocco39c1,282$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004820.8%10 W · 38 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Morocco9c1,279$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.221,25239.2%491 W · 761 L+6.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x89cb…4fd8backed Morocco12c1,263$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504134.1%14 W · 27 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2c0…a68dbacked Morocco32c1,250$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006648.5%32 W · 34 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf29a…3122backed Morocco40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50016637.3%62 W · 104 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9e5…d012backed Morocco39c1,228$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4792138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Morocco6c1,226$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.022,45334.7%850 W · 1,603 L+84.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39bc…2739backed Morocco33c1,212$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4009241.3%38 W · 54 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Morocco37c1,200$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4445962.7%37 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Morocco34c1,176$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030142.5%128 W · 173 L-1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc66a…ed6abacked Haiti78c1,176$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.941968.3%286 W · 133 L+65.4wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+43.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Haiti61c1,134$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.426953.6%37 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc444…20dabacked Morocco32c1,100$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35213731.4%43 W · 94 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.