TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$243,236
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$227,636

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,236 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bfc…98e0backed No0c21,963$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.96348.8%3 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-76.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21b8…b2f1backed No0c18,832$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked No35c9,941$3,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,470.39633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No3c7,109$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.331,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c2b…36f4backed No18c6,435$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.067347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7384…1ebdbacked No5c5,904$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.7514022.1%31 W · 109 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ad6…669ebacked No2c5,551$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.766610.6%7 W · 59 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-66.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes50c3,076$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.2736648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No6c2,945$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4437533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes51c2,679$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.434,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x610b…b5b2backed No61c2,500$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,514.9340%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88a4…d091backed No41c2,496$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.71219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-74.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x928a…0e27backed Yes35c1,717$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.629054.4%49 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes54c1,711$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.115,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9193…a796backed Yes37c1,663$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.211741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes42c1,514$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.119338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked Yes65c1,379$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.198016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c1,232$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb69…c773backed No25c1,080$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.6911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-55.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes27c862.66$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.0723035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfe4…d1c0backed No67c798.03$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.33441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes49c762.04$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.5615923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cae…def2backed No71c686.58$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.93669.4%25 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No65c683.99$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.616456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes63c650.08$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.841,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fa7…57debacked Yes37c623.22$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+169.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No44c614.02$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.442,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fec…9d17backed Yes37c596.22$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.385152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed Yes29c589.87$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.887534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4639…78b8backed Yes50c588.16$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.712944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadb4…e282backed No67c543.78$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.79728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc831…a849backed Yes39c505.46$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.673100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+167.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe131…33e5backed Yes25c500$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid0%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4789…b286backed Yes33c475.37$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.287524%18 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5976…ae05backed No4c450$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes23c433.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.2356131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No69c426.61$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.279959.6%59 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes33c426.01$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.381,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No18c417.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.746219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d7…033abacked Yes19c414.29$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+438.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes31c399.04$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.891816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-52.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…5d0cbacked Yes32c375.91$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+214.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2f…7760backed Yes39c357.66$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.751926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes40c348.29$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.3930428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c13…31a3backed Yes30c348.21$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.194129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5525…e512backed Yes39c337.63$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+153.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No39c335.59$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.361,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes22c327.37$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.592548%12 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30b2…5f37backed Yes29c317.85$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.921827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-46.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No54c286.13$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.484,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x774b…37c3backed No67c281.22$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.52366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8de…614dbacked Yes23c280.3$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.564325.6%11 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97fb…87f7backed Yes49c264.39$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.051520%3 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…1e77backed Yes38c244.59$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.76742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b6…7a17backed Yes65c236.42$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.615565.5%36 W · 19 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8b0…9f87backed Yes33c230.18$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.763511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x116d…fbf1backed No7c226.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1517859%105 W · 73 L+20.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes42c225.05$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.8625362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x02f6…5047backed No74c202.92$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9820%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes34c200$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.61,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d01…fbb6backed Yes28c199.59$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.15728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc72…ad49backed No41c197.03$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3711565.2%75 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4066…2407backed No63c192.79$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.813243.9%58 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf43…66f5backed Yes22c183$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.0810234.3%35 W · 67 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5e…54b0backed No54c173.83$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed Yes29c171.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.5710163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes33c169.68$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.1956627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69c9…3b29backed Yes40c163.62$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.81050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85f3…ab79backed No10c159.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.96450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes19c159.5$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.9124238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes60c157.19$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7528517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x947b…b05ebacked Yes37c150.48$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.241625%4 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes41c150$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.1598738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes36c149.36$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0931124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No65c149.17$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4791444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No37c148.95$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8352155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2764…b6acbacked Yes28c148.23$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.46450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+89.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes34c147.95$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.121,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb692…7c83backed No17c146$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1311770.9%83 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a26…4ff1backed Yes36c143.26$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.34944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes46c142.96$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6618668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes41c140.85$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.4228742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9047…2959backed No65c138.24$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.464257.1%24 W · 18 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1c0…646ebacked No68c135$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.462568%17 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+37.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcab2…651cbacked Yes38c134.64$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.03580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+74.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…bb62backed No72c134.58$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-51.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd9…ad53backed Yes80c132.47$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.96376.2%48 W · 15 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No69c128.86$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6328954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa636…95f3backed Yes53c128.62$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.363658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1cb…a1c7backed No15c126$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.021127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No52c125$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.536150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a0…76e5backed Yes20c124.1$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.84771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+69%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No71c122.61$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5624370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73c1…ad0ebacked Yes80c122.54$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-11.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes65c122.04$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3416335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc293…675dbacked Yes31c121.89$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.144537.8%17 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes45c119.55$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1921235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes34c119.35$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.841,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3683…1bb0backed Yes31c119.27$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.021050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+97.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes40c118.18$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9199949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.