Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4fb37dafebd7f921ca73361d11c1c7451285b103a3919bd77d42b6dbd8737e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $243,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $227,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed No | 0c | 21,963$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…b2f1backed No | 0c | 18,832$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…f5adbacked No | 35c | 9,941$3,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,470.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 3c | 7,109$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.33 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 18c | 6,435$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.06 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked No | 5c | 5,904$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.75 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked No | 2c | 5,551$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 50c | 3,076$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.27 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 6c | 2,945$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.44 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 51c | 2,679$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.43 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…b5b2backed No | 61c | 2,500$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…d091backed No | 41c | 2,496$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.71 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed Yes | 35c | 1,717$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.62 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 1,711$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…a796backed Yes | 37c | 1,663$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.21 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 42c | 1,514$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.1 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 65c | 1,379$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.19 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 1,232$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c773backed No | 25c | 1,080$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 27c | 862.66$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.07 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…d1c0backed No | 67c | 798.03$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.3 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 49c | 762.04$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.56 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…def2backed No | 71c | 686.58$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.9 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 65c | 683.99$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.6 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 63c | 650.08$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.84 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa7…57debacked Yes | 37c | 623.22$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 44c | 614.02$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.44 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 37c | 596.22$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.38 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed Yes | 29c | 589.87$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.88 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4639…78b8backed Yes | 50c | 588.16$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.71 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…e282backed No | 67c | 543.78$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc831…a849backed Yes | 39c | 505.46$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +167.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…33e5backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | 0%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 33c | 475.37$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.28 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…ae05backed No | 4c | 450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 23c | 433.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.23 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 69c | 426.61$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.27 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 426.01$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.38 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 18c | 417.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…033abacked Yes | 19c | 414.29$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +438.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed Yes | 31c | 399.04$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.89 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…5d0cbacked Yes | 32c | 375.91$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +214.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…7760backed Yes | 39c | 357.66$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.75 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 40c | 348.29$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.39 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 30c | 348.21$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.19 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5525…e512backed Yes | 39c | 337.63$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 39c | 335.59$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.36 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 22c | 327.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.59 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…5f37backed Yes | 29c | 317.85$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.92 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 286.13$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x774b…37c3backed No | 67c | 281.22$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…614dbacked Yes | 23c | 280.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.56 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fb…87f7backed Yes | 49c | 264.39$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.05 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…1e77backed Yes | 38c | 244.59$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed Yes | 65c | 236.42$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed Yes | 33c | 230.18$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.76 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 7c | 226.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 42c | 225.05$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.86 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f6…5047backed No | 74c | 202.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 200$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d01…fbb6backed Yes | 28c | 199.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 41c | 197.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 63c | 192.79$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 22c | 183$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.08 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda5e…54b0backed No | 54c | 173.83$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 29c | 171.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.57 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 33c | 169.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed Yes | 40c | 163.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f3…ab79backed No | 10c | 159.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 19c | 159.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.91 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 60c | 157.19$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…b05ebacked Yes | 37c | 150.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 41c | 150$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 36c | 149.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 65c | 149.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 37c | 148.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2764…b6acbacked Yes | 28c | 148.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 147.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.12 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 17c | 146$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…4ff1backed Yes | 36c | 143.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 46c | 142.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 140.85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.42 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…2959backed No | 65c | 138.24$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…646ebacked No | 68c | 135$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcab2…651cbacked Yes | 38c | 134.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed No | 72c | 134.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed Yes | 80c | 132.47$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 69c | 128.86$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.63 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa636…95f3backed Yes | 53c | 128.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…a1c7backed No | 15c | 126$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…76e5backed Yes | 20c | 124.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 71c | 122.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…ad0ebacked Yes | 80c | 122.54$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 65c | 122.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…675dbacked Yes | 31c | 121.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 45c | 119.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 34c | 119.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…1bb0backed Yes | 31c | 119.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 40c | 118.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.