TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$155,458
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$159,440

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,458 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed3c…017bbacked Yes0c23,524$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21b8…b2f1backed Yes1c12,649$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadb4…e282backed Yes7c9,517$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.86728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes15c8,287$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,216.16610.6%7 W · 59 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-66.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes1c3,274$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6171031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x116d…fbf1backed Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12017859%105 W · 73 L+20.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes7c1,717$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.211,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes39c1,696$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.245,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe131…33e5backed Yes12c1,493$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.08425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid0%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes29c1,309$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.64,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed Yes23c1,027$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.17534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes5c1,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2814…5596backed Yes1c951$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.01955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked Yes42c933.31$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.788016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes49c664$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.436648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes6c624.96$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.56219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b6…7a17backed Yes38c602.96$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.155565.5%36 W · 19 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes3c597$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8335232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No80c553.87$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.1667158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c541.85$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes25c539.3$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.556131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes5c498.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9233018.8%62 W · 268 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb25…2fdebacked Yes6c489.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.391450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes11c479.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.971,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes7c400$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0be5…0db3backed Yes46c399.73$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.882138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes42c395.96$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.0337533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No57c394.3$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.2319060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No59c336$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7616456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c323.64$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.685,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes6c321.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1120027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes29c314.13$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.123035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes26c300$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes13c300$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.535429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes6c299.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1919338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes12c289.68$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3930131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5976…ae05backed Yes8c279.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes32c271.71$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.463030%9 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No69c265.45$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8211652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No76c253.21$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0952155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes21c242.18$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.647,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xfc72…ad49backed Yes62c221.65$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1711565.2%75 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes10c211.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1956721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No68c211.2$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.564,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a26…4ff1backed Yes19c204.41$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.34944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No44c201.01$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.958,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes7c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134831.3%15 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+52.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d01…fbb6backed Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33fa…c278backed Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes40c194.02$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7418668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No74c183.63$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1986173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d46…dc46backed Yes25c177.11$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.212441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2006…7e1bbacked No80c167.39$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.582236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Yes20c165.76$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes20c164.94$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6756627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes24c145.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0967633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes10c142.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.274447.7%21 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes20c133.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.022,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa631…7651backed Yes21c126.84$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.110225.5%26 W · 76 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c126.19$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.237,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed No68c122.36$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8434651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4912…eab8backed Yes28c120.83$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.54030%12 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes29c120.48$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.311931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x947b…b05ebacked Yes32c117.13$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.271625%4 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd16…310bbacked No64c116.62$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No78c112.21$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9342469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked No52c108.13$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6557659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c102$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.549,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15f7…e582backed Yes23c101.65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.581020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4011956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3116724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1114022.1%31 W · 109 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2141845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8112735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes20c91.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.119028.9%26 W · 64 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+35%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9003…4c59backed Yes30c91$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.38531.8%27 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes29c90.05$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.763,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes30c89.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3328742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes20c88.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0195852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7eab…aa00backed Yes32c86.41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.97520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3554…a07dbacked Yes28c80.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes29c79.3$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2353437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…ae14backed Yes41c78.2$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.829943.4%43 W · 56 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes64c73.67$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.35141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No54c73.21$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.721,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No70c72.71$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.081,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c9…3554backed Yes30c71.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.393836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes29c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.498738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes30c67.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2121235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes24c64.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4959125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeca9…8952backed No71c62.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.995062%31 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes26c61.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1630428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes60c60$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.793034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3961backed Yes32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.99142.9%39 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97fb…87f7backed Yes31c59.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.621520%3 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes53c58.54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1660236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c84…88f3backed Yes27c57.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.622657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes30c57.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.346317.5%11 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes50c50.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0526265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.