Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf85210f7bcb0ae03e684ef8112e79e3f4cf9b6759e2f5372f3df257bffab001c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0be5…0db3backed Yes | 0c | 18,863$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 0c | 9,087$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 6,474$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…d091backed Yes | 7c | 1,994$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,254$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.8 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…33e5backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | 0%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 677.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 5c | 653.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed Yes | 7c | 617.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca4…d41abacked Yes | 21c | 442.23$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 402.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 10c | 397.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 15c | 349.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…5fc8backed Yes | 8c | 344.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 10c | 297.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 6c | 279.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 267.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 264.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3c…017bbacked Yes | 10c | 264.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…d9a3backed Yes | 14c | 216.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 8c | 210.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 7c | 207.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fb…ef29backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 14c | 188.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…8067backed Yes | 16c | 168.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fb…87f7backed Yes | 12c | 152.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 144.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2988…48ebbacked Yes | 9c | 144.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 11c | 141$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 9c | 125.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…3709backed Yes | 11c | 123.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9f…efe7backed Yes | 15c | 121.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 21c | 118.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 113.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 77c | 108.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed Yes | 14c | 101.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…e582backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 13c | 95.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 91.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…a250backed No | 79c | 19.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.