TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,716
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,199

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,716 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0be5…0db3backed Yes0c15,751$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.752138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa631…7651backed Yes0c15,501$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810225.5%26 W · 76 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes7c7,719$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.464,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed Yes1c7,120$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.257534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes24c1,969$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.314621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-31.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes2c1,380$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24523.8%2 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+93.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadb4…e282backed Yes28c1,091$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.43728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes31c731.73$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.9323035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No75c668.29$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.742857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b6…7a17backed Yes27c644.41$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.745565.5%36 W · 19 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x238d…eb74backed Yes2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12631.6%1 W · 62 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes7c427.56$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.025,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes16c422.87$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.283030%9 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes28c377.6$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5856131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No70c355.71$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.6237533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c312.5$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.875,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No70c277.73$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3211652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes26c241.14$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.682,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05ac…6d71backed No72c221.55$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.391560%9 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb69…c773backed Yes43c220.18$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.28911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-55.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed No73c209.56$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.32,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf985…5fc8backed Yes24c200.58$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.141118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-75.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c200.41$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.368,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes18c197.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.897,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes26c188.28$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.31,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes11c182.54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.811,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes30c181.04$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.312,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c173.76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No79c167.22$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4710163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes18c162.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.78417.9%15 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No71c156.19$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.294339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ede…86febacked Yes7c150$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.31330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes21c150$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.534918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes19c133.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9623633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes32c131.9$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6119022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes27c126.3$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0356627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed3c…017bbacked Yes22c117.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.08728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes26c106.04$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7516724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No72c105.87$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15f7…e582backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes26c93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.189,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes22c90.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.997,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes12c90.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6993034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x97fb…87f7backed Yes21c87.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.421520%3 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9f…efe7backed Yes26c85.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.05944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes21c83.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No68c82.04$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.881,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa439…9ed6backed No78c78.3$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.911625%4 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2427…52a2backed Yes20c75.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.214955.1%27 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eef…a835backed Yes21c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x031e…372abacked Yes31c69.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.42728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No65c66.3$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1220958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes26c60.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9926434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1c0…646ebacked No67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.82568%17 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+37.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes27c59.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.066317.5%11 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x196c…2a0dbacked Yes27c58.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.84944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a23…184abacked No61c55.43$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.621070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+28.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c52.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc98b…44cbbacked Yes29c51.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8650%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c81…1b64backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116144.3%27 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011341.6%47 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed No77c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.598738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed No78c49.81$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9621235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a8d…ba65backed No78c49.44$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.881040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89d1…f70dbacked Yes28c49.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.931040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ba…c42fbacked Yes29c48.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.962931%9 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa636…95f3backed Yes22c47.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.493658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes31c46.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.431,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No73c44.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1544448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f57…2265backed Yes27c44.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.941010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-68.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes23c43.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1559125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes24c41.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes27c40.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.135438.9%21 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No74c40.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5370770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No73c36.97$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9838655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No80c36.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3954867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05ae…7bc6backed No73c34.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.514761.7%29 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f01…4c3abacked No69c34.02$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5916159%95 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3ee…23a6backed No75c31.44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.863562.9%22 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed No80c30.63$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1330428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3208…768fbacked Yes35c29.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.29955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff9…a12abacked No76c27.83$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f3…8faabacked No73c26.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.114362.8%27 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No67c26.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6828954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c84…88f3backed No79c25.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.362657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd782…a950backed No80c25.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.082661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dbe…3d5dbacked No74c24.34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2168…c154backed No76c23.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.591450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No68c23.57$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4457232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked No80c22.14$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5433535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No53c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.344,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ab…1694backed No75c21.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca9…8952backed No74c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.535062%31 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc2a…3ba6backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick69cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16b1…f426backed No77c19.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.633571.4%25 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed No73c19.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2519353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No74c18.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.941,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x398b…0489backed No71c16.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.85461.1%33 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36f1…847fbacked No79c13.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.885139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.