South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CS Cristal vs. Club Cerro Porteño end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa03058686462d2b2c936a15ca19a31ea70dba94a77b9a3888316b0ac49dcac41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26f8…3452backed No | 48c | 23,813$11,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,314.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 51c | 9,706$4,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,950.06 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 51c | 5,223$2,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,647.41 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed No | 45c | 4,999$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,749.68 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 37c | 3,121$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.19 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 52c | 1,384$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.07 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…c163backed Yes | 62c | 1,002$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Yes | 54c | 765.53$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.38 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 38c | 451.86$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.71 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 28c | 394.09$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 13c | 391.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…720fbacked Yes | 65c | 391.6$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 58cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 55c | 333.53$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.01 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Yes | 55c | 321.05$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.58 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Yes | 55c | 321.05$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.58 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 55c | 321.05$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.58 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Yes | 55c | 321.05$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.58 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Yes | 55c | 321.05$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.58 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 56c | 316.62$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.67 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 55c | 261.98$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.09 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 56c | 257.55$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.71 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddc…6796backed Yes | 40c | 238.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked No | 79c | 227.1$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +10.2wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0e13…c506backed Yes | 58c | 210.07$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 55c | 200.95$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.52 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 55c | 200.95$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.52 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Yes | 56c | 198.59$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.57 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Yes | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…95b7backed Yes | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Yes | 51c | 134.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.84 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Yes | 55c | 128.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Yes | 55c | 112.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 55c | 111.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 98.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Yes | 37c | 98.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…156bbacked No | 55c | 97.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Yes | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Yes | 52c | 94.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Yes | 55c | 85.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 44c | 85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed Yes | 31c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 68c | 77.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Yes | 51c | 76.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 221 | 45.7%101 W · 120 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 32c | 73.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Yes | 55c | 68.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…8f09backed No | 69c | 62.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755f…0d27backed Yes | 55c | 62.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 32c | 60.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 39c | 59.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed No | 41c | 58.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa426…540dbacked Yes | 55c | 58.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Yes | 31c | 50.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked Yes | 55c | 48.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 53c | 46.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…b7b1backed Yes | 53c | 44.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c62…6573backed No | 35c | 39.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 38c | 38.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 36.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 37c | 36.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Yes | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed No | 70c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe65…0546backed Yes | 51c | 33.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Yes | 36c | 31.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Yes | 47c | 31.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…291fbacked Yes | 59c | 30.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Yes | 53c | 30.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed Yes | 44c | 28.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…2033backed Yes | 51c | 25.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…b425backed No | 50c | 25.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x615c…c1a8backed No | 70c | 24.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Yes | 55c | 22.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7faf…e2b5backed Yes | 56c | 21.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 61c | 17.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CS Cristal vs. Club Cerro Porteño end in a draw?this page
- Will CS Cristal win on 2026-04-08?Yes won
- Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-04-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.