Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bf3b55e7b031d6394bdcd677d4822a4f7202293fbbebe9b96f9e675a412c108
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 56c | 1,037$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.63 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 45c | 337.2$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.73 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 253.72$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.28 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked No | 52c | 249.01$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.3 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 12c | 238.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 210.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed No | 45c | 176.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 157.43$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 151.77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 47c | 147.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.29 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…7bcbbacked No | 55c | 144.08$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 137$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 44c | 129.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 118.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 20c | 117.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 54c | 116.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 113.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed No | 55c | 108.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 105.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 103$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 49c | 98.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 92.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 51c | 81.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 62c | 75.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 46c | 64.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 59.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 54c | 57.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 50c | 55.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 49c | 53.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…8ac0backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 42.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked No | 47c | 42.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 47c | 42.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 42c | 39.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 39.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 53c | 37.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 50c | 35.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 50c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 47c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 58c | 34.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 53c | 32.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 32.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 31.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 45c | 29.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 49c | 27.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 46c | 27.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fc…16b5backed Yes | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989f…0af2backed Yes | 49c | 25.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…1cb0backed Yes | 60c | 25.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 50c | 24.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 45c | 23.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 57c | 23.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbce…c781backed No | 55c | 23.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 50c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 49c | 20.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 51c | 20.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 19.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.