Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c00272711840e7b0bdf3a3e11bf68cf92a8808bf06f8958875477466c66a87c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 76c | 268.74$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 255.07$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 252.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 77c | 177.57$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 133$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 123.95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 38c | 122.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 119.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 118.66$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 25c | 110.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 31c | 108.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…8ac0backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 68c | 96.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 67c | 79.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 27c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 77c | 64.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 30c | 64.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 60.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 67c | 60.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 59.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 56.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 54.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 24c | 46.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…8e6abacked Yes | 28c | 43.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 32c | 42.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29c…572abacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 38.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 43c | 36.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 75c | 36.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 29c | 34.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 32.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 31.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 29.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 29.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 74c | 29.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 53c | 22.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 78c | 20.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 77c | 19.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 69c | 19.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 56c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 74c | 16.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.