IPO · resolved market
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48cafe0a0690db8fe052c19afe84ead3f32314cac97015ea8c68a442a77d58a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 5c | 1,625$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 1,358$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.62 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed No | 4c | 1,218$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 28c | 671.67$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.42 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…73cebacked No | 6c | 465.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34f…212ebacked Yes | 42c | 443.46$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c30…7673backed Yes | 70c | 416.22$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…df12backed No | 35c | 381.78$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 9c | 344$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 261.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 10c | 230.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 10c | 228.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 51c | 207.89$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.94 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfef9…67afbacked No | 10c | 203.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…fd11backed No | 52c | 187.21$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 51c | 183.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca8…ce2abacked Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 74c | 140.85$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4288…09c1backed Yes | 64c | 124.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 52c | 121.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 41c | 103.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6791…7f55backed No | 11c | 97.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 36c | 89.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…c288backed Yes | 62c | 88.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes | 63c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 66.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8689…b1d6backed No | 51c | 66.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 53c | 57.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea45…e748backed Yes | 65c | 52.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…b8f1backed No | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked Yes | 76c | 41.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 39c | 35.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…9ee4backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x295d…73f4backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 54c | 21.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 56c | 19.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 56c | 18.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa004…c9edbacked Yes | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be $400B or greater at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $300B and $350B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $350B and $400B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.