IPO · resolved market
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be $400B or greater at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6669e8cf6c69a2ea4643fe1afecff4c1006bfb39c4e78518aac12ebc7f9e368
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ac6…2c6fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,937$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…7c47backed Yes | 2c | 2,576$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x863e…1424backed Yes | 2c | 2,063$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 2,021$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…282cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,937$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,680$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd862…5b74backed Yes | 1c | 1,669$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…d39abacked Yes | 2c | 1,474$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…c4c2backed Yes | 2c | 1,286$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…4404backed Yes | 2c | 1,194$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…5facbacked Yes | 12c | 1,161$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a71…8792backed Yes | 2c | 972$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 865.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 3c | 620.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf379…36c0backed Yes | 2c | 568.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes | 48c | 186.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 120.59$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…648ebacked No | 52c | 57.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…cc50backed Yes | 48c | 37.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 52c | 32.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…d648backed No | 61c | 16.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be $400B or greater at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $300B and $350B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $350B and $400B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.